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【出版时间及名称】：Asian Banks Strategist 2011 Outlook 2011年1月4日
【作者】：citi【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：128
【目录或简介】：
Raise Korea to O/W – In 2010, South Asian banks significantly outperformed and
re-rated versus North Asia by roughly 20-30%. We see better recovery trends in
2011 for North Asia and raise Korea and Taiwan a notch to Overweight and Neutral
respectively. We lower Malaysia a notch to Underweight. Overweight markets:
China, Korea, Thailand; neutral HK, Singapore, India, Taiwan; underweight
Indonesia, Malaysia. Regional top Buys: ABC, Hana, KBANK, DBS, Mega,
Standard Chartered. Regional top Sells: BBNI, BDMN, HLB, Fubon, TMB, Cathay.
– Fundamental Recovery – Going into 2011, we see more signs of recovery/
improvement in North Asia, e.g., Korean banks should see better loan growth,
NIMs and credit quality; Taiwan banks should see better loan growth and NIMs.
We see relatively more headwinds for India and Malaysia (loan growth and NIM
pressures) and Indonesia (bottoming of bond yields).
– Global Recovery – At a macro level, our regional equity strategist Markus
Rosgen believes North Asian markets will outperform South Asia on the back of
an improving global economy and a recovery in the global LEI.
Low Rates Support Asset Prices – While home prices across Asia are high
(many are back to or above the pre-Asian crisis peak), low interest rates have
meant that affordability is still well below the peak. Home price-to-income ratios
are approaching but not yet beyond previous peaks. We believe low rates and
buoyant economies are likely to support asset prices in the near term.
Benign Credit Quality Continues – Credit quality is being supported by low
rates, robust GDP and credit growth and supportive asset prices. Experiences in
Asia and Europe show that credit quality problems become pronounced when
credit growth falls below lending rates (i.e., credit crunch and/or surging interest
rates). Loan growth in most of Asia exceeds lending rates by some 5-10% points –
this should underpin credit quality.
Basel 3: Not a Slam Dunk – Capital deserves attention because global minimum
standards are rising rapidly (possibly 9-10% CET1), and strong loan growth in Asia
will erode capital ratios. On a 9% CET1 requirement, only half of our coverage
would meet this level. Those that would not are mostly Taiwan banks, some Indian
banks, smaller Chinese banks and a few Malaysian banks.
Multi-Strategy – Banks will be a primary beneficiary of a recovery in capex
spending, which our regional strategist sees as a key investment theme for Asia in
2011. We put together a basket of top bank picks in the three overweight country
sectors: China, Korea and Thailand.
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