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中国经济到了刘易斯转折点了吗？    ——来自贫困地区的证据

【原文出处】浙江大学学报：人文社会科学版

【原刊地名】杭州

【原刊期号】20101

【原刊页号】54～72

【分 类 号】F13

【分 类 名】社会主义经济理论与实践

【复印期号】201005

【英文标题】Has China's Economy Reached the Lewis Turning Point?： Evidence from the Poverty-stricken Regions

【标题注释】［基金项目］国家自然科学基金海外及港澳学者合作项目(70828002)；教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地课题资助项目(08JJD840206)

【作 者】张晓波/杨进/王生林

【作者简介】张晓波，男，国际食物政策研究所高级研究员，浙江大学中国农村发展研究院特聘教授，主要从事发展经济学研究；国际食物政策研究所，华盛顿　20006-1002；

杨进，男，中国农业科学院国际农业和农村发展中心研究助理，主要从事发展经济学研究；中国农业科学院国际农业和农村发展中心，北京　100081；

王生林，男，甘肃农村发展研究院教授，主要从事农业宏观管理和农业可持续发展研究。甘肃农村发展研究院，甘肃　兰州　730070

【内容提要】在过去的几年中，劳动力短缺已经成为日益关注的问题，尤其是在沿海地区。然而，关于中国是否到达刘易斯转折点而进入劳动力短缺时代依然存在很大的争论。大多数这方面的实证研究都建立在对总体劳动力供给和需求的估计上。由于劳动力统计数据的质量参差不齐，这些争论很难调和。工资数据比就业数据更为准确。基于对甘肃省农忙和农闲时期工资的发展演化模式的长期调研发现，无论其他影响因素是否被控制，实际工资水平总是不断地向上攀升。贫困地区实际工资在加速上涨，甚至农闲时期也是如此，表明剩余劳动力的时代已经结束。该发现对中国未来的发展模式具有重要的政策意义。

【摘 要 题】发展问题

【英文摘要】In the past several years, labor shortage has become an emerging issue, particularly in the coastal region. However, there is a heated debate on whether China has passed the Lewis turning point and entered a new era of labor shortage. Most empirical studies on this topic focus on the estimation of total labor supply and demand.　Because of the poor quality of labor statistics, the debate is hardly reconciled. The wage rate data is more accurate than employment data.　In this paper, the evolving patterns of wage rate in harvest and slack seasons over a long period based on primary surveys in Gansu province are examined. Our results show a clear rising trend of real wage rate since 2003 no matter whether other factors are controlled or not. The acceleration of real wage rate even in slack seasons in a poor region indicates that the era of surplus labor is over. This finding has important policy implications on China's future development model.

【关 键 词】二元经济/剩余劳动力/刘易斯模型/劳动力市场

    dual economy/surplus labor/Lewis model/labor market

【正 文】

【参考文献】

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关键词：刘易斯转折点 中国经济 转折点 刘易斯 Transforming 中国经济 刘易斯 转折点