发帖
雷达卡
quantative methods
correlation&regression
correlation +test the significance of correlation
linear regression line model -->regression coefficients-->SEE-->Correlation of determination
confidence interval -->ANOVA table -->prediction interval
multiple regression
model-->assumptions--->3 violations --->model misspecification
time series analysis
the route map :
plot the date to see if it's linear or exponential trend
-->use DW to test to see if the serial correlation exists
-->if not .then a trend model would be okey
-->if yes , then we choose to use AR model
before we use AR model , we need to make time series covariance stationary by doing the following
scaled the date -->take the natural log -->take the first difference
use AR model
test serial correlation with "autocorrelation of residuals "method
-->if yes ,add lag
-->if not ,test seasonality
-->if yes ,add seasonal lag
-->if not , test arch
if the slope on the lagged squared residual is significant ,then ARCH exists,then we can use OLS to corret
ARCH makes us predict the next period s squared residual
continue tomorrow .....
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