发帖
雷达卡
How the iPhone Widens the U.S. Trade Deficit with China: The Case of the iPhone X
2 作者信息
Yuqing Xing
National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
3 出处
Yuqing Xing. How the iPhone Widens the U.S. Trade Deficit with China: The Case of the iPhone X[J]. Front. Econ. China, 2020, 15(4): 642-658.
链接
http://journal.hep.com.cn/fec/EN/10.3868/s060-011-020-0026-8
http://journal.hep.com.cn/fec/EN/Y2020/V15/I4/642
4 摘要
Abstract：Through an examination of the case of the iPhone X, this paper demonstrates that Chinese companies involved in the production of the iPhone X have moved up along the global value chain. According to the bill of materials, those companies contributed 25.4% of the value added of the iPhone X. About 45% of the value added of the iPhone X originated in Japan, South Korea, and other economies. The iPhone trade remains a significant element of the statistical distortion of the China–US bilateral trade imbalance. In terms of gross value, the import of one iPhone X results in a USD 332.75 trade deficit for the US; measured in terms of the value added, however the deficit is a mere USD 104. The depreciation of the Chinese yuan (CNY) has very limited power to counterbalance the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration because the foreign value added embedded in Chinese exports is 33.9% on average. Simulation results show that to counterbalance a 25% tariff, the CNY would have to depreciate by 43.3% against the US dollar on average, and to fully compensate for a 25% tariff burden on the iPhone X, a 400% depreciation of the CNY would be necessary. Hedging the risk of the punitive U.S. tariffs by depreciating the CNY is impossible.
苹果手机是如何放大美国对中国的贸易逆差：以iPhone X为例
邢予青
摘 要：通过对iPhone X 的分析，本文发现参与 iPhone X 制造的中国公司已经实现了沿全球价值链的进步。材料账单显示这些中国公司为iPhone X 贡献了25.4%的附加值。iPhone X 大约45%的附加值源自日本、韩国和其他经济体。iPhone贸易仍然是扭曲中美双边贸易不平衡的一个重要元素。按照总贸易值来计算，进口一部 iPhone X 为美国带来332.75美元的贸易逆差；而以附加值方式计算，逆差只有104美元。人民币贬值对于抵消特朗普政府强加的关税作用极其有限，因为中国出口产品里包含的外国附加值平均占到33.9%。模拟结果显示，要抵消25%的关税，人民币需要对美元平均贬值43.3%，而要完全抵消对于iPhone X 加征的25%关税，人民币则需贬值400%。因此，通过人民币贬值来对冲美国惩罚性关税所带来的风险是不可能的。
作者简介：
邢予青：日本国立政策研究大学院大学经济学终身教授，兼任新加坡国立大学全球生产网络研究中心国际顾问委员会委员，英国白玫瑰东亚研究中心国际顾问委员会委员。主要研究方向为国际贸易，跨国企业海外投资和全球价值链。曾任亚洲开发银行研究院能力建设与培训部部长，芬兰中央银行访问研究员，世界发展经济学研究院访问研究员，新加坡国大学东亚研究所访问教授。获得美国伊利诺伊大学香槟分校经济学博士。
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