大摩对日本地震的深度研究

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Key Cross-Asset Implications
Economics: Supply-chain disruptions could constrain the AxJ region's growth in the next two quarters – we see downside risk of ~20-40 bps in C2011. Our core AxJ thesis remains unchanged; inflation risks persist.
Equity strategy: Difficult absolute equity return environment until inflation peaks. Events in Japan and the Middle East are further supply-side shocks – likely worsening input price inflation.
Key beneficiary: Korea, via substitution effect.
Also benefiting: Indonesian & Australian coal miners, regional wind power, regional food producers.
On the minus side: Taiwanese and Chinese IT assembly firms; Japanese JV auto manufacturers.
Commodities: Steel, thermal coal and natural gas prices could rise, uranium prices weaken.
FX: Short-term intervention may keep USD/JPY at pre-earthquake levels, long-term weakness.

大摩对日本地震的深度研究 83页 ，希望对大家有帮助

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关键词：日本地震 intervention Manufacturer Implications substitution 研究 深度 日本地震