高盛高华Restaurants:Feed the growing market

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Restaurants:Feed the growing market; initiate on Ajisen and Gourmet Master社会服务业（旅游饭店和休闲）

研究机构：高盛高华证券 分析师： Roxan ... 撰写日期：2011年04月06日

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    China’s restaurant market is under-penetrated compared with developedcountries. Based on Korea’s experience, spending on dining out could enjoy a27% CAGR over the next 10 years vs. 15% for overall spending. Footageexpansion, SSSG, and margin improvement are the three main earnings driversthat we consider when identifying possible long-term beneficiaries.
    We forecast 30% net income CAGR during 2011-2013. (1) Strong growthsupported by both footage expansion and store earnings improvementprovides a more solid foundation vs. its peers. (2) Strategic alliance impliesstable long-term footage expansion: Ajisen has cooperated with more than 30hypermarkets/department stores and is now the preferred brand in these stores’new expansion plans, i.e. there is less uncertainty involved when looking for newsites. (3) Operating margin expansion: We estimate the company’s operatingmargin to gradually expand to 23.1% in 2013 from 18.1% in 2009 due tooperating leverage driven by SSSG and economies of scale as the companyfurther penetrates into the market (current footprint in 86 cities).
    We forecast 26% net income CAGR during 2011-2013. (1) Negative SSSG in2011 on the China side. We note the sales of newly-launched stores usually fall10%-20% six months after opening due to less promotion and cannibalizationfrom new stores. (2) Operating margin decline in China (from 18.2% in 2009 to11% in 2012E) should offset sales growth. We forecast SSSG in 2011 to be -2.9%due to the impact of 45% of the company’s store openings occurring in 2010 andwe expect net income growth to be 25% in 2011, vs. company guidance of 30%.
    We believe PEG valuation is the most appropriate way to capture the growthpotential of China’s restaurants and adopt a 1.16X PEG multiple based on currentU.S. restaurants’ valuation. For Ajisen, we set our target 2011E P/E multiple at 35X,vs. 43X of Starbucks in its early development stage, and our 12-mo TP at HK$18.5,implying 22% upside potential; initiate with Buy.For Gourmet Master, we set ourtarget 2011E P/E multiple at 30X & our 12-mo TP at NT$255; initiate with Neutral.

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关键词：Restaurants restaurant Growing market marke 高盛 market 高华 feed Restaurants