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摘要翻译：
我们通过分析基本面和技术指标的巧合（及其缺失），为比特币的泡沫和崩溃开发了一个强有力的诊断。利用基于网络属性的广义梅特卡夫定律，一个基本值被量化，并显示出至少四次被增长和破裂的泡沫严重超过。在这些泡沫中，我们发现了一个普遍的超指数不可持续的增长。我们用对数周期幂律奇异性(LPPLS)模型对这一普遍模式进行建模，该模型简洁地捕捉了各种正反馈现象，如羊群和模仿。LPPLS模型提供了市场不稳定的事前预警，量化了高崩盘风险和与实际修正一致的崩盘时间概率括号；尽管，一如既往，精确的时间和触发（哪根稻草打断了骆驼的背部）是外生的和不可预测的。展望未来，我们的分析发现比特币价格存在实质性但并非前所未有的高估，这表明比特币价格将在未来几个月内波动性横盘（从撰写本报告时起，2018年3月）。
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英文标题：
《Are Bitcoin Bubbles Predictable? Combining a Generalized Metcalfe's Law
and the LPPLS Model》
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作者：
Spencer Wheatley, Didier Sornette, Tobias Huber, Max Reppen, and
Robert N. Gantner
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最新提交年份：
2018
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分类信息：
一级分类：Economics 经济学
二级分类：Econometrics 计量经济学
分类描述：Econometric Theory, Micro-Econometrics, Macro-Econometrics, Empirical Content of Economic Relations discovered via New Methods, Methodological Aspects of the Application of Statistical Inference to Economic Data.
计量经济学理论，微观计量经济学，宏观计量经济学，通过新方法发现的经济关系的实证内容，统计推论应用于经济数据的方法论方面。
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一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：General Finance 一般财务
分类描述：Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
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英文摘要：
We develop a strong diagnostic for bubbles and crashes in bitcoin, by analyzing the coincidence (and its absence) of fundamental and technical indicators. Using a generalized Metcalfe's law based on network properties, a fundamental value is quantified and shown to be heavily exceeded, on at least four occasions, by bubbles that grow and burst. In these bubbles, we detect a universal super-exponential unsustainable growth. We model this universal pattern with the Log-Periodic Power Law Singularity (LPPLS) model, which parsimoniously captures diverse positive feedback phenomena, such as herding and imitation. The LPPLS model is shown to provide an ex-ante warning of market instabilities, quantifying a high crash hazard and probabilistic bracket of the crash time consistent with the actual corrections; although, as always, the precise time and trigger (which straw breaks the camel's back) being exogenous and unpredictable. Looking forward, our analysis identifies a substantial but not unprecedented overvaluation in the price of bitcoin, suggesting many months of volatile sideways bitcoin prices ahead (from the time of writing, March 2018).
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1803.05663
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