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摘要翻译：
本文简要总结了最近导致我们以惊人的准确性预测油价上涨趋势逆转的日期（2008年7月11日）的方法，并阐述了相关油价动态的一些进一步方面。该方法基于离散尺度不变性的概念，其面向金融预测的变量包括对数周期自相似性、普遍优选尺度因子λ=2等元素，并允许“超级泡沫”现象。从这个角度来看，目前（截至2008年8月22日）油价的剧烈下跌--但仍然是对数的--周期性的减速下跌--与这样一个“超级泡沫”的衰减有关，这个“超级泡沫”在大约一年前开始发展，此前长期的油价上涨阶段（正常泡沫）被评估为最终终止在2010年年中左右。
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英文标题：
《Criticality Characteristics of Current Oil Price Dynamics》
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作者：
Stanislaw Drozdz, Jaroslaw Kwapien, Pawel Oswiecimka
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最新提交年份：
2008
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分类信息：
一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：Statistical Finance 统计金融
分类描述：Statistical, econometric and econophysics analyses with applications to financial markets and economic data
统计、计量经济学和经济物理学分析及其在金融市场和经济数据中的应用
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一级分类：Physics 物理学
二级分类：Physics and Society 物理学与社会
分类描述：Structure, dynamics and collective behavior of societies and groups (human or otherwise). Quantitative analysis of social networks and other complex networks. Physics and engineering of infrastructure and systems of broad societal impact (e.g., energy grids, transportation networks).
社会和团体（人类或其他）的结构、动态和集体行为。社会网络和其他复杂网络的定量分析。具有广泛社会影响的基础设施和系统（如能源网、运输网络）的物理和工程。
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英文摘要：
Methodology that recently lead us to predict to an amazing accuracy the date (July 11, 2008) of reverse of the oil price up trend is briefly summarized and some further aspects of the related oil price dynamics elaborated. This methodology is based on the concept of discrete scale invariance whose finance-prediction-oriented variant involves such elements as log-periodic self-similarity, the universal preferred scaling factor lambda=2, and allows a phenomenon of the "super-bubble". From this perspective the present (as of August 22, 2008) violent - but still log-periodically decelerating - decrease of the oil prices is associated with the decay of such a "super- bubble" that has started developing about one year ago on top of the longer-term oil price increasing phase (normal bubble) whose ultimate termination is evaluated to occur in around mid 2010.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/0808.3360
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