滨鸟的人为再利用反馈：一个多物种的研究 贝叶斯视角

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摘要翻译：
本文描述了雪鸟（Charadrius alexandrinus）是佛罗里达主要栖息的滨鸟，它的生态位是巢穴、景观和区域尺度上的景观和生物学变量的函数。我们利用沿佛罗里达海湾沿岸收集的数据，确定了一些影响巢址选择和生存的可控地貌控制。特别是，我们重点研究了海滩补给干预措施对雪鸻(SP)和洄游管涌鸻(PP)（Charadrius melodus）和红结鸻(RK)（Calidris canutus）的影响。为了量化过去的退养项目与滨鸟物种之间的关系，我们使用蒙特卡罗程序从二项式概率的后验分布中抽样，以同一年和前一年海滩补充干预的发生为条件，一个地区不是筑巢地或越冬地。结果表明，对SP、PP和RK进行恢复干预后，一年后该地区不是越冬地的可能性分别是2.3、3.1和0.8倍。SP为2.5。一个地区在退役事件后不是繁殖地的可能性要大几倍。通过最大熵原理模型，我们观察到在繁殖季节和越冬季节SP的生境利用差异很小。然而，观察到RK的生境却有很大的不同。为沙丘区稀疏的低植被和不平坦/低坡的海滩表面维持和创造最佳的适宜生境是建议的保护方案，以将人类海滩恢复和沙丘种群转化为正反馈，而不影响其他受威胁的滨鸟物种。
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英文标题：
《Anthropogenic Renourishment Feedback on Shorebirds: a Multispecies
  Bayesian Perspective》
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作者：
M. Convertino, J.F. Donoghue, M.L. Chu-Agor, G. A. Kiker, R.
  Munoz-Carpena, R.A. Fischer, I. Linkov
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最新提交年份：
2011
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分类信息：

一级分类：Quantitative Biology        数量生物学
二级分类：Other Quantitative Biology        其他定量生物学
分类描述：Work in quantitative biology that does not fit into the other q-bio classifications
不适合其他q-bio分类的定量生物学工作
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一级分类：Quantitative Biology        数量生物学
二级分类：Populations and Evolution        种群与进化
分类描述：Population dynamics, spatio-temporal and epidemiological models, dynamic speciation, co-evolution, biodiversity, foodwebs, aging; molecular evolution and phylogeny; directed evolution; origin of life
种群动力学；时空和流行病学模型；动态物种形成；协同进化；生物多样性；食物网；老龄化；分子进化和系统发育；定向进化；生命起源
--

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英文摘要：
  In this paper the realized niche of the Snowy Plover (Charadrius alexandrinus), a primarily resident Florida shorebird, is described as a function of the scenopoetic and bionomic variables at the nest-, landscape-, and regional-scale. We identified some pos- sible geomorphological controls that influence nest-site selection and survival using data collected along the Florida Gulf coast. In particular we focused on the effects of beach replenishment interventions on the Snowy Plover (SP), and on the migratory Piping Plover (PP) (Charadrius melodus) and Red Knot (RK) (Calidris canutus). To quantify the relationship between past renourishment projects and shorebird species we used a Monte Carlo procedure to sample from the posterior distribution of the binomial probabilities that a region is not a nesting or a wintering ground conditional on the occurrence of a beach replenishment intervention in the same and the previous year. The results indicate that it was 2.3, 3.1, and 0.8 times more likely that a region was not a wintering ground following a year with a renourishment intervention for the SP, PP and RK respectively. For the SP it was 2.5. times more likely that a region was not a breeding ground after a renourishment event. Through a maximum entropy principle model we observed small differences in the habitat use of the SP during the breeding and the wintering season. However the habitats where RK was observed ap- peared quite different. Maintaining and creating optimal suitable habitats for SP characterized by sparse low vegetation in the foredunes areas, and uneven/low-slope beach surfaces, is the proposed conservation scenario to convert anthropic beach restorations and SP populations into a positive feedback without impacting other threatened shorebird species.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1104.0174

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关键词：贝叶斯 再利用 Quantitative intervention Biodiversity Charadrius Snowy 佛罗里达 Florida 滨鸟