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摘要翻译：
人们在类似于推理难题的情况下进行启发式推理，如伯特兰的盒子悖论和蒙蒂·霍尔问题。这一事实对经济决策的实际意义是不确定的，因为偏离合理的推理可能但不一定会导致不同于合理推理会产生的“认知上有偏见的”结果。这里导出了适用于实验和非实验情况的标准，用于在推理-谜题情况下启发式推理产生或不产生认知偏差。在某些情况下，这两个标准都不满足，并且不能确定智能体的后验概率评估或选择是否存在认知偏差。
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英文标题：
《Identifying the occurrence or non occurrence of cognitive bias in
situations resembling the Monty Hall problem》
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作者：
Fatemeh Borhani and Edward J. Green
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最新提交年份：
2018
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分类信息：
一级分类：Economics 经济学
二级分类：Econometrics 计量经济学
分类描述：Econometric Theory, Micro-Econometrics, Macro-Econometrics, Empirical Content of Economic Relations discovered via New Methods, Methodological Aspects of the Application of Statistical Inference to Economic Data.
计量经济学理论，微观计量经济学，宏观计量经济学，通过新方法发现的经济关系的实证内容，统计推论应用于经济数据的方法论方面。
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英文摘要：
People reason heuristically in situations resembling inferential puzzles such as Bertrand's box paradox and the Monty Hall problem. The practical significance of that fact for economic decision making is uncertain because a departure from sound reasoning may, but does not necessarily, result in a "cognitively biased" outcome different from what sound reasoning would have produced. Criteria are derived here, applicable to both experimental and non-experimental situations, for heuristic reasoning in an inferential-puzzle situations to result, or not to result, in cognitively bias. In some situations, neither of these criteria is satisfied, and whether or not agents' posterior probability assessments or choices are cognitively biased cannot be determined.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1802.08935
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