摘要翻译:
旅行限制可能会减少一种威胁公共健康的传染病的传播。在这项研究中,我们调查不同程度的旅行限制可能对类似SARS的疾病爆发的速度和地理传播有什么影响。我们使用瑞典人口的随机模拟模型,用瑞典三年来收集的城市间旅行模式调查数据校准。我们发现,禁止超过50公里的旅行大大降低了疫情的速度和地理传播,即使遵守率不到100%。结果发现,对于不同的市际传输强度率,该结果是鲁棒的。因此,旅行限制可能是减轻未来疫情影响的有效方法。
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英文标题:
《The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of a highly contagious
disease in Sweden》
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作者:
Martin Camitz and Fredrik Liljeros
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最新提交年份:
2005
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分类信息:
一级分类:Quantitative Biology 数量生物学
二级分类:Quantitative Methods 定量方法
分类描述:All experimental, numerical, statistical and mathematical contributions of value to biology
对生物学价值的所有实验、数值、统计和数学贡献
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一级分类:Physics 物理学
二级分类:Physics and Society 物理学与社会
分类描述:Structure, dynamics and collective behavior of societies and groups (human or otherwise). Quantitative analysis of social networks and other complex networks. Physics and engineering of infrastructure and systems of broad societal impact (e.g., energy grids, transportation networks).
社会和团体(人类或其他)的结构、动态和集体行为。社会网络和其他复杂网络的定量分析。具有广泛社会影响的基础设施和系统(如能源网、运输网络)的物理和工程。
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一级分类:Quantitative Biology 数量生物学
二级分类:Other Quantitative Biology 其他定量生物学
分类描述:Work in quantitative biology that does not fit into the other q-bio classifications
不适合其他q-bio分类的定量生物学工作
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英文摘要:
Travel restrictions may reduce the spread of a contagious disease that threatens public health. In this study we investigate what effect different levels of travel restrictions may have on the speed and geographical spread of an outbreak of a disease similar to SARS. We use a stochastic simulation model of the Swedish population, calibrated with survey data of travel patterns between municipalities in Sweden collected over three years. We find that a ban on journeys longer than 50 km drastically reduces the speed and the geographical spread of outbreaks, even with when compliance is less than 100%. The result is found to be robust for different rates of inter-municipality transmission intensities. Travel restrictions may therefore be an effective way to mitigate the effect of a future outbreak.
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PDF链接:
https://arxiv.org/pdf/q-bio/0505044