摘要翻译:
本文针对似然和矩不可处理的非线性动力学模型,提出了一种筛分模拟矩量法(Sieve-SMM)估计参数和激波分布的方法。SMM的一个重要关注点是需要参数分布来匹配样本和模拟矩。然而,依赖于这种分布的经济数量,如福利和资产价格,可能对错误描述很敏感。Sieve-SMM估计器通过灵活地用高斯和尾部混合筛近似激波的分布来解决这个问题。该渐近框架提供了一致性、收敛速度和渐近正态性结果,将已有结果推广到具有更一般动力学和潜在变量的新框架。对生产经济中资产定价的应用表明,相对风险厌恶的估计值大幅下降,突出了错误规范偏差的经验相关性。
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英文标题:
《A Sieve-SMM Estimator for Dynamic Models》
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作者:
Jean-Jacques Forneron
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最新提交年份:
2020
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分类信息:
一级分类:Economics 经济学
二级分类:Econometrics 计量经济学
分类描述:Econometric Theory, Micro-Econometrics, Macro-Econometrics, Empirical Content of Economic Relations discovered via New Methods, Methodological Aspects of the Application of Statistical Inference to Economic Data.
计量经济学理论,微观计量经济学,宏观计量经济学,通过新方法发现的经济关系的实证内容,统计推论应用于经济数据的方法论方面。
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一级分类:Mathematics 数学
二级分类:Statistics Theory 统计理论
分类描述:Applied, computational and theoretical statistics: e.g. statistical inference, regression, time series, multivariate analysis, data analysis, Markov chain Monte Carlo, design of experiments, case studies
应用统计、计算统计和理论统计:例如统计推断、回归、时间序列、多元分析、数据分析、马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗、实验设计、案例研究
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一级分类:Statistics 统计学
二级分类:Statistics Theory 统计理论
分类描述:stat.TH is an alias for math.ST. Asymptotics, Bayesian Inference, Decision Theory, Estimation, Foundations, Inference, Testing.
Stat.Th是Math.St的别名。渐近,贝叶斯推论,决策理论,估计,基础,推论,检验。
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英文摘要:
This paper proposes a Sieve Simulated Method of Moments (Sieve-SMM) estimator for the parameters and the distribution of the shocks in nonlinear dynamic models where the likelihood and the moments are not tractable. An important concern with SMM, which matches sample with simulated moments, is that a parametric distribution is required. However, economic quantities that depend on this distribution, such as welfare and asset-prices, can be sensitive to misspecification. The Sieve-SMM estimator addresses this issue by flexibly approximating the distribution of the shocks with a Gaussian and tails mixture sieve. The asymptotic framework provides consistency, rate of convergence and asymptotic normality results, extending existing results to a new framework with more general dynamics and latent variables. An application to asset pricing in a production economy shows a large decline in the estimates of relative risk-aversion, highlighting the empirical relevance of misspecification bias.
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PDF链接:
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1902.01456


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