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摘要翻译：
本文是发表在《自然》杂志455,1181（2008）[ARXIV:0810.5306]上的一篇短文的后续文章。越来越清楚的是，市场的不稳定动态大多是内生的，而不是由于对外生新闻的合理处理。我详细阐述了自旋玻璃型问题的观点，即竞争和异质性的结合通常导致长期的统计周期被危机和对环境微小变化的高度敏感性打断，这可能是经济系统复杂性的隐喻。我认为物理学对经济学的最有价值的贡献最终可能是方法论性质的，而来自物理学和基于agent的数值模拟的简单模型，尽管高度程式化，但比传统的经济学模型更现实，传统的经济学模型假设理性的agent具有无限的远见和无限的计算能力。
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英文标题：
《The (unfortunate) complexity of the economy》
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作者：
Jean-Philippe Bouchaud
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最新提交年份：
2009
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分类信息：
一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：General Finance 一般财务
分类描述：Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
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一级分类：Physics 物理学
二级分类：Physics and Society 物理学与社会
分类描述：Structure, dynamics and collective behavior of societies and groups (human or otherwise). Quantitative analysis of social networks and other complex networks. Physics and engineering of infrastructure and systems of broad societal impact (e.g., energy grids, transportation networks).
社会和团体（人类或其他）的结构、动态和集体行为。社会网络和其他复杂网络的定量分析。具有广泛社会影响的基础设施和系统（如能源网、运输网络）的物理和工程。
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英文摘要：
This article is a follow-up of a short essay that appeared in Nature 455, 1181 (2008) [arXiv:0810.5306]. It has become increasingly clear that the erratic dynamics of markets is mostly endogenous and not due to the rational processing of exogenous news. I elaborate on the idea that spin-glass type of problems, where the combination of competition and heterogeneities generically leads to long epochs of statis interrupted by crises and hyper-sensitivity to small changes of the environment, could be metaphors for the complexity of economic systems. I argue that the most valuable contribution of physics to economics might end up being of methodological nature, and that simple models from physics and agent based numerical simulations, although highly stylized, are more realistic than the traditional models of economics that assume rational agents with infinite foresight and infinite computing abilities.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/0904.0805
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