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摘要翻译：
我们研究了具有单一交易资产的市场的信息效率。价格最初不同于基本价值，关于基本价值，代理有嘈杂的私人信息（平均来说，这是正确的）。一小部分交易员在每个时期都会修正他们的价格预期。资产交易的价格是公开信息。代理人的期望具有适应性成分和带有验证性偏差的社会互动成分。我们表明，单独来看，每一种对理性的偏离都恶化了市场的信息效率。然而，当这两种偏差结合在一起时，市场信息无效率的程度（衡量为长期市场价格与资产基本价值的偏差）在适应性分量的权重和验证性偏差的程度上都是非单调的。在一定的参数范围内，两种偏差往往会减轻彼此的影响，从而提高信息效率。
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英文标题：
《Adaptive Expectations, Confirmatory Bias, and Informational Efficiency》
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作者：
Gani Aldashev and Timoteo Carletti and Simone Righi
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最新提交年份：
2010
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分类信息：
一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：Trading and Market Microstructure 交易与市场微观结构
分类描述：Market microstructure, liquidity, exchange and auction design, automated trading, agent-based modeling and market-making
市场微观结构，流动性，交易和拍卖设计，自动化交易，基于代理的建模和做市
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一级分类：Physics 物理学
二级分类：Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems 自适应和自组织系统
分类描述：Adaptation, self-organizing systems, statistical physics, fluctuating systems, stochastic processes, interacting particle systems, machine learning
自适应，自组织系统，统计物理，波动系统，随机过程，相互作用粒子系统，机器学习
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一级分类：Physics 物理学
二级分类：Physics and Society 物理学与社会
分类描述：Structure, dynamics and collective behavior of societies and groups (human or otherwise). Quantitative analysis of social networks and other complex networks. Physics and engineering of infrastructure and systems of broad societal impact (e.g., energy grids, transportation networks).
社会和团体（人类或其他）的结构、动态和集体行为。社会网络和其他复杂网络的定量分析。具有广泛社会影响的基础设施和系统（如能源网、运输网络）的物理和工程。
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英文摘要：
We study the informational efficiency of a market with a single traded asset. The price initially differs from the fundamental value, about which the agents have noisy private information (which is, on average, correct). A fraction of traders revise their price expectations in each period. The price at which the asset is traded is public information. The agents' expectations have an adaptive component and a social-interactions component with confirmatory bias. We show that, taken separately, each of the deviations from rationality worsen the information efficiency of the market. However, when the two biases are combined, the degree of informational inefficiency of the market (measured as the deviation of the long-run market price from the fundamental value of the asset) can be non-monotonic both in the weight of the adaptive component and in the degree of the confirmatory bias. For some ranges of parameters, two biases tend to mitigate each other's effect, thus increasing the informational efficiency.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1009.5075
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