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摘要翻译：
这项研究量化了东京可能封锁以防止新冠肺炎病毒传播的经济影响。由于供需短缺，封锁的负面影响可能会通过供应链传播到其他地区。将基于Agent的模型应用于日本近160万家企业的实际供应链，模拟了当对东京市民生存不重要的生产活动关闭一段时间后，东京以外的生产活动会发生什么变化。我们发现，当东京被封锁一个月时，对其他地区的间接影响将是对东京直接影响的两倍，导致日本总生产损失27万亿日元，占其年GDP的5.3%。尽管东京关闭的产量占日本总产量的21%，但封锁将导致日本一个月内日产量减少86%。
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英文标题：
《The propagation of the economic impact through supply chains: The case
of a mega-city lockdown against the spread of COVID-19》
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作者：
Hiroyasu Inoue and Yasuyuki Todo
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最新提交年份：
2020
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分类信息：
一级分类：Computer Science 计算机科学
二级分类：Social and Information Networks 社会和信息网络
分类描述：Covers the design, analysis, and modeling of social and information networks, including their applications for on-line information access, communication, and interaction, and their roles as datasets in the exploration of questions in these and other domains, including connections to the social and biological sciences. Analysis and modeling of such networks includes topics in ACM Subject classes F.2, G.2, G.3, H.2, and I.2; applications in computing include topics in H.3, H.4, and H.5; and applications at the interface of computing and other disciplines include topics in J.1--J.7. Papers on computer communication systems and network protocols (e.g. TCP/IP) are generally a closer fit to the Networking and Internet Architecture (cs.NI) category.
涵盖社会和信息网络的设计、分析和建模，包括它们在联机信息访问、通信和交互方面的应用，以及它们作为数据集在这些领域和其他领域的问题探索中的作用，包括与社会和生物科学的联系。这类网络的分析和建模包括ACM学科类F.2、G.2、G.3、H.2和I.2的主题；计算应用包括H.3、H.4和H.5中的主题；计算和其他学科接口的应用程序包括J.1-J.7中的主题。关于计算机通信系统和网络协议（例如TCP/IP）的论文通常更适合网络和因特网体系结构（CS.NI）类别。
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一级分类：Economics 经济学
二级分类：General Economics 一般经济学
分类描述：General methodological, applied, and empirical contributions to economics.
对经济学的一般方法、应用和经验贡献。
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一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：Economics 经济学
分类描述：q-fin.EC is an alias for econ.GN. Economics, including micro and macro economics, international economics, theory of the firm, labor economics, and other economic topics outside finance
q-fin.ec是econ.gn的别名。经济学，包括微观和宏观经济学、国际经济学、企业理论、劳动经济学和其他金融以外的经济专题
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英文摘要：
This study quantifies the economic effect of a possible lockdown of Tokyo to prevent spread of COVID-19. The negative effect of the lockdown may propagate to other regions through supply chains because of shortage of supply and demand. Applying an agent-based model to the actual supply chains of nearly 1.6 million firms in Japan, we simulate what would happen to production activities outside Tokyo when production activities that are not essential to citizens' survival in Tokyo were shut down for a certain period. We find that when Tokyo is locked down for a month, the indirect effect on other regions would be twice as large as the direct effect on Tokyo, leading to a total production loss of 27 trillion yen in Japan, or 5.3% of its annual GDP. Although the production shut down in Tokyo accounts for 21% of the total production in Japan, the lockdown would result in a reduction of the daily production in Japan by 86% in a month.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.14002
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