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Table of Contents
Summary Market Views................................... Page 02
Country Sections .............................................. Page 03
Policy Rate Forecasts....................................... Page 40
Economic Diary ................................................ Page 44
Bond Supply Monitor ....................................... Page 45
Monetary Policy Monitor.................................. Page 46
Local Markets Analytics ................................... Page 47
Asian Economic Indicators ............................... Page 52
China
. Economic outlook: April, for the first time in nine
months, will likely report both yoy and mom declines
in CPI inflation. The strong non-manufacturing PMI
suggests that services are beginning to outperform
manufacturing. In particular, construction and
consumer services posted the most impressive PMI
readings.
. Main risks: A common misperception is that wage
and commodity price inflation will continue to drive
CPI inflation in H2 this year despite the fall in
agriculture prices. Our analysis shows that in the
short term, the decline in agriculture prices is in fact 5
times more impactful on CPI than the impact of rising
wage and oil prices on CPI. In addition, readers
should note that there is a 100% pass-through from
agriculture prices to CPI, while the pass-through from
raw material prices to CPI is only 16%.
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