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摘要翻译：
我们研究了流行病传播的集合种群模型，其中不同的亚种群（城市）通过个人（旅行者）的流量联系在一起。这个框架可以描述疾病在大范围内的传播，我们在这里重点讨论了疾病到达时间的计算，它是流行病种子的性质和连接各个子群体的网络特征的函数。利用解析和数值论证，我们引入了一个易于计算的量，它近似于这个平均到达时间。我们通过一个在全球机场网络上传播的疾病的例子表明，这个量能很好地预测在每一种流行病场景的实现中疾病在各个亚群体中到达的顺序，而不仅仅是对平均过实现的预测。最后，这一数量可能有助于确定疾病传播的主要途径。
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英文标题：
《Global disease spread: statistics and estimation of arrival times》
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作者：
Aurelien Gautreau (LPT), Alain Barrat (LPT), Marc Barthelemy (CEA
DIF/DPTA)
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最新提交年份：
2008
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分类信息：
一级分类：Quantitative Biology 数量生物学
二级分类：Populations and Evolution 种群与进化
分类描述：Population dynamics, spatio-temporal and epidemiological models, dynamic speciation, co-evolution, biodiversity, foodwebs, aging; molecular evolution and phylogeny; directed evolution; origin of life
种群动力学；时空和流行病学模型；动态物种形成；协同进化；生物多样性；食物网；老龄化；分子进化和系统发育；定向进化；生命起源
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一级分类：Physics 物理学
二级分类：Statistical Mechanics 统计力学
分类描述：Phase transitions, thermodynamics, field theory, non-equilibrium phenomena, renormalization group and scaling, integrable models, turbulence
相变，热力学，场论，非平衡现象，重整化群和标度，可积模型，湍流
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英文摘要：
We study metapopulation models for the spread of epidemics in which different subpopulations (cities) are connected by fluxes of individuals (travelers). This framework allows to describe the spread of a disease on a large scale and we focus here on the computation of the arrival time of a disease as a function of the properties of the seed of the epidemics and of the characteristics of the network connecting the various subpopulations. Using analytical and numerical arguments, we introduce an easily computable quantity which approximates this average arrival time. We show on the example of a disease spread on the world-wide airport network that this quantity predicts with a good accuracy the order of arrival of the disease in the various subpopulations in each realization of epidemic scenario, and not only for an average over realizations. Finally, this quantity might be useful in the identification of the dominant paths of the disease spread.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/801.1846
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