发帖
雷达卡
摘要翻译：
全球粮食价格上涨导致了广泛的饥饿和社会动荡----必须了解其原因。在2011年9月发表的一篇论文中，我们首次构建了一个与食品价格定量一致的动态模型。具体而言，该模型适合粮农组织2004年1月至2011年3月的粮食价格指数时间序列。结果表明，这一时期价格上涨的主导原因是投资者投机和乙醇转化。该模型包括投资者趋势跟踪，以及在商品、股票和债券之间转换，以利用预期回报的增加。在此，我们将食品价格模型延长至2012年1月，不修改模型，只是继续其动态。该协议仍然是精确的，验证了分析的描述和预测能力。需要采取政策行动，以避免第三次投机性泡沫，这将导致价格在2012年底前超过最近的峰值。
---
英文标题：
《UPDATE February 2012 - The Food Crises: Predictive validation of a
quantitative model of food prices including speculators and ethanol
conversion》
---
作者：
Marco Lagi, Yavni Bar-Yam, Karla Z. Bertrand and Yaneer Bar-Yam
---
最新提交年份：
2012
---
分类信息：
一级分类：Physics 物理学
二级分类：Physics and Society 物理学与社会
分类描述：Structure, dynamics and collective behavior of societies and groups (human or otherwise). Quantitative analysis of social networks and other complex networks. Physics and engineering of infrastructure and systems of broad societal impact (e.g., energy grids, transportation networks).
社会和团体（人类或其他）的结构、动态和集体行为。社会网络和其他复杂网络的定量分析。具有广泛社会影响的基础设施和系统（如能源网、运输网络）的物理和工程。
--
一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：General Finance 一般财务
分类描述：Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
--
一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：Statistical Finance 统计金融
分类描述：Statistical, econometric and econophysics analyses with applications to financial markets and economic data
统计、计量经济学和经济物理学分析及其在金融市场和经济数据中的应用
--
---
英文摘要：
Increases in global food prices have led to widespread hunger and social unrest---and an imperative to understand their causes. In a previous paper published in September 2011, we constructed for the first time a dynamic model that quantitatively agreed with food prices. Specifically, the model fit the FAO Food Price Index time series from January 2004 to March 2011, inclusive. The results showed that the dominant causes of price increases during this period were investor speculation and ethanol conversion. The model included investor trend following as well as shifting between commodities, equities and bonds to take advantage of increased expected returns. Here, we extend the food prices model to January 2012, without modifying the model but simply continuing its dynamics. The agreement is still precise, validating both the descriptive and predictive abilities of the analysis. Policy actions are needed to avoid a third speculative bubble that would cause prices to rise above recent peaks by the end of 2012.
---
PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1203.1313
京公网安备 11010802022788号
