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摘要翻译：
如果没有宅基地政策，边疆将如何演变？本文应用矩阵补全法预测了在没有归国的情况下，边界状态容量的反事实时间序列。在安慰剂试验中，矩阵完成方法在最小化预测误差方面优于合成控制和其他基于回归的估计。因果估计表明，宅基地政策对州政府支出和收入产生了重大和长期的负面影响。这些结果类似于差异中的差异估计，该估计利用了146万个人土地专利记录中宅基地条目的时间和强度的变化。
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英文标题：
《State-Building through Public Land Disposal? An Application of Matrix
Completion for Counterfactual Prediction》
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作者：
Jason Poulos
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最新提交年份：
2019
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分类信息：
一级分类：Economics 经济学
二级分类：General Economics 一般经济学
分类描述：General methodological, applied, and empirical contributions to economics.
对经济学的一般方法、应用和经验贡献。
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一级分类：Economics 经济学
二级分类：Econometrics 计量经济学
分类描述：Econometric Theory, Micro-Econometrics, Macro-Econometrics, Empirical Content of Economic Relations discovered via New Methods, Methodological Aspects of the Application of Statistical Inference to Economic Data.
计量经济学理论，微观计量经济学，宏观计量经济学，通过新方法发现的经济关系的实证内容，统计推论应用于经济数据的方法论方面。
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一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：Economics 经济学
分类描述：q-fin.EC is an alias for econ.GN. Economics, including micro and macro economics, international economics, theory of the firm, labor economics, and other economic topics outside finance
q-fin.ec是econ.gn的别名。经济学，包括微观和宏观经济学、国际经济学、企业理论、劳动经济学和其他金融以外的经济专题
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一级分类：Statistics 统计学
二级分类：Applications 应用程序
分类描述：Biology, Education, Epidemiology, Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Medical, Physical Sciences, Quality Control, Social Sciences
生物学，教育学，流行病学，工程学，环境科学，医学，物理科学，质量控制，社会科学
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英文摘要：
How would the frontier have evolved in the absence of homestead policies? I apply a matrix completion method to predict the counterfactual time-series of frontier state capacity had there been no homesteading. In placebo tests, the matrix completion method outperforms synthetic controls and other regression-based estimators in terms of minimizing prediction error. Causal estimates signify that homestead policies had significant and long-lasting negative impacts on state government expenditure and revenue. These results are similar to difference-in-difference estimates that exploit variation in the timing and intensity of homestead entries aggregated from 1.46 million individual land patent records.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1903.08028
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