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摘要翻译：
我们首先表明（1）用二阶马尔可夫链模型而不是文献中广泛使用的标准一阶模型来研究卫生费用过程的重要性。二阶马尔可夫链是一个最小的框架，它能够区分那些第一次经历某一卫生支出水平的人和那些已经经历该水平或其他水平一段时间的人。此外，利用该模型我们还表明：（2）健康冲击发生的概率在10岁左右先降低，然后随着年龄的增长而增加，尤其是在40岁以后；（3）健康冲击在不同年龄组之间的分布在百分位数达到中位数之前没有差异，但在中位数以上，老年群体的健康冲击分布逐渐开始以一级分布为主；（4）健康冲击的持续性也呈现出与年龄有关的U型。
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英文标题：
《Quantifying Health Shocks Over the Life Cycle》
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作者：
Taiyo Fukai, Hidehiko Ichimura, Kyogo Kanazawa
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最新提交年份：
2018
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分类信息：
一级分类：Economics 经济学
二级分类：Econometrics 计量经济学
分类描述：Econometric Theory, Micro-Econometrics, Macro-Econometrics, Empirical Content of Economic Relations discovered via New Methods, Methodological Aspects of the Application of Statistical Inference to Economic Data.
计量经济学理论，微观计量经济学，宏观计量经济学，通过新方法发现的经济关系的实证内容，统计推论应用于经济数据的方法论方面。
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英文摘要：
We first show (1) the importance of investigating health expenditure process using the order two Markov chain model, rather than the standard order one model, which is widely used in the literature. Markov chain of order two is the minimal framework that is capable of distinguishing those who experience a certain health expenditure level for the first time from those who have been experiencing that or other levels for some time. In addition, using the model we show (2) that the probability of encountering a health shock first de- creases until around age 10, and then increases with age, particularly, after age 40, (3) that health shock distributions among different age groups do not differ until their percentiles reach the median range, but that above the median the health shock distributions of older age groups gradually start to first-order dominate those of younger groups, and (4) that the persistency of health shocks also shows a U-shape in relation to age.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1801.08746
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