《Risk Aversion and Catastrophic Risks: the Pill Experiment》
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作者:
Julien Blasco, Graciela Chichilnisky
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最新提交年份:
2015
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英文摘要:
This article focuses on the work of O. Chanel and G. Chichilnisky (2013) on the flaws of expected utility theory while assessing the value of life. Expected utility is a fundamental tool in decision theory. However, it does not fit with the experimental results when it comes to catastrophic outcomes ---see, for example, Chichilnisky (2009) for more details. In the experiments conducted by Olivier Chanel in 1998 and 2009, several subjects are ask to imagine they are presented 1 billion identical pills. They are paid \\$220,000 to take and swallow one, knowing that one out of 1 billion is deadly. The objective of this article is to show that risk aversion phenomenon cannot explain the experimental results found. This is an additional reason why a new kind of utility function is necessary: the axioms proposed by Graciela Chichilnisky will be briefly presented, and it will be shown that it better fits with experiments than any risk aversion utility function.
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中文摘要:
本文重点介绍了O.Chanel和G.Chichilnisky(2013)在评估生命价值时对预期效用理论的缺陷所做的工作。期望效用是决策理论中的一个基本工具。然而,当涉及灾难性后果时,它与实验结果不符——更多细节见Chichilnisky(2009)。奥利维尔·香奈儿(Olivier Chanel)在1998年和2009年进行的实验中,要求几名受试者想象他们收到了10亿颗相同的药丸。他们知道每10亿人中就有一人是致命的,所以拿着22万美元就可以吞下一个。本文的目的是证明风险厌恶现象不能解释实验结果。这就是为什么需要一种新的效用函数的另一个原因:Graciela Chichilnisky提出的公理将被简要介绍,并将表明它比任何风险规避效用函数更适合于实验。
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分类信息:
一级分类:Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类:General Finance 一般财务
分类描述:Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
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