住宅供暖深度脱碳的模拟研究

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英文标题：
《Simulating the deep decarbonisation of residential heating for limiting
  global warming to 1.5C》
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作者：
Florian Knobloch, Hector Pollitt, Unnada Chewpreecha, Vassilis
  Daioglou, Jean-Francois Mercure
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最新提交年份：
2018
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英文摘要：
  Whole-economy scenarios for limiting global warming to 1.5C suggest that direct carbon emissions in the buildings sector should decrease to almost zero by 2050, but leave unanswered the question how this could be achieved by real-world policies. We take a modelling-based approach for simulating which policy measures could induce an almost-complete decarbonisation of residential heating, the by far largest source of direct emissions in residential buildings. Under which assumptions is it possible, and how long would it take? Policy effectiveness highly depends on behavioural decision- making by households, especially in a context of deep decarbonisation and rapid transformation. We therefore use the non-equilibrium bottom-up model FTT:Heat to simulate policies for a transition towards low-carbon heating in a context of inertia and bounded rationality, focusing on the uptake of heating technologies. Results indicate that the near-zero decarbonisation is achievable by 2050, but requires substantial policy efforts. Policy mixes are projected to be more effective and robust for driving the market of efficient low-carbon technologies, compared to the reliance on a carbon tax as the only policy instrument. In combination with subsidies for renewables, near-complete decarbonisation could be achieved with a residential carbon tax of 50-200Euro/tCO2. The policy-induced technology transition would increase average heating costs faced by households initially, but could also lead to cost reductions in most world regions in the medium term. Model projections illustrate the uncertainty that is attached to household behaviour for prematurely replacing heating systems.
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中文摘要：
将全球变暖限制在1.5摄氏度的整体经济情景表明，到2050年，建筑业的直接碳排放量应降至几乎为零，但如何通过现实世界的政策实现这一目标，这一问题尚未得到解答。我们采用基于建模的方法来模拟哪些政策措施可能导致住宅供暖几乎完全脱碳，这是迄今为止住宅建筑中最大的直接排放源。在哪些假设下是可能的，需要多长时间？政策有效性在很大程度上取决于家庭的行为决策，尤其是在深度脱碳和快速转型的背景下。因此，我们使用非平衡自下而上模型FTT：Heat，在惯性和有限理性的背景下，模拟向低碳供热过渡的政策，重点关注供热技术的应用。结果表明，到2050年可以实现接近零的脱碳，但需要大量的政策努力。与依赖碳税作为唯一的政策工具相比，预计政策组合在推动高效低碳技术市场方面将更加有效和稳健。结合对可再生能源的补贴，可以通过50-200欧元/吨二氧化碳的居民碳税实现近乎完全的脱碳。政策引导的技术转型将增加家庭最初面临的平均供暖成本，但也可能导致世界大多数地区在中期内降低成本。模型预测说明了过早更换供暖系统的家庭行为的不确定性。
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分类信息：

一级分类：Quantitative Finance        数量金融学
二级分类：Economics        经济学
分类描述：q-fin.EC is an alias for econ.GN. Economics, including micro and macro economics, international economics, theory of the firm, labor economics, and other economic topics outside finance
q-fin.ec是econ.gn的别名。经济学，包括微观和宏观经济学、国际经济学、企业理论、劳动经济学和其他金融以外的经济专题
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一级分类：Physics        物理学
二级分类：Physics and Society        物理学与社会
分类描述：Structure, dynamics and collective behavior of societies and groups (human or otherwise). Quantitative analysis of social networks and other complex networks. Physics and engineering of infrastructure and systems of broad societal impact (e.g., energy grids, transportation networks).
社会和团体（人类或其他）的结构、动态和集体行为。社会网络和其他复杂网络的定量分析。具有广泛社会影响的基础设施和系统（如能源网、运输网络）的物理和工程。
--

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2022-6-1 15:37:20 上传

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关键词：Quantitative Technologies Residential QUANTITATIV equilibrium