20110602 Follow Me 23 chinalin2002

21 and 21.
en..this paper likes a small picture of the economy of Australia. I can get many definite dates and facts to get a overall view of it. It's great.
I insist on the thinking that American is still a core of the economy of the whole world and this time slot is a gentle slot which is due to the uncertainty of policies of American.

the recover is a long project...and it's also a good time to let us know more about the economy~

go on~
just do it.

2,2
this article is  a bit long for me to read , so i do some translations.
RBA=Reserve Bank of Australia ,澳洲储备银行
RBC=Royal Bank of Canada 加拿大皇家银行
benchmark rate 基准利率
accounts for 占有

While Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens has held interest rates at 4.75 percent for the past five meetings to help Queensland state recover, investors today boosted bets he’ll
raise borrowing costs by August.
尽管澳洲储备银行行长在过去的五次峰会上都表示利率保持在4.75%来帮助昆士兰州复苏，但是投资者现在都认为储备银行将在八月份的时候调高借款利率。
The RBA has pledged to look past data distorted by the natural disasters and said rates will need to rise “at some point” to contain inflation.
澳洲练出以及申明，过去由于资源灾害造成的数据有些失真，并表示将来有必要在某个时候提高利率以应付通胀。
“However, the RBA is almost certain to maintain the strong hawkish rhetoric to ensure that markets and the community ‘have been warned’.”
但是，澳洲联储几乎肯定会保持强硬的鹰派态度以确保市场和共同体受到警告。
in this sentence ,t agree with yushengfan ,but we can"t  judge whether the claim is from RBA or government . so i am sceptical with the opinion that central bank relied too much on goverment's attitude, the monetary policy tends to be disordered.
from me perspective . this artical is about different aspects' attitute for Australia' economy . today Global growth, including the economies of some of Australia’s biggest trading partners, shows signs of weakening, the pridicit of shutdown and inflation of global econimies . and the natural disaster also infulence the Australia' economy .according with so many factors , RBA will rise the borrow rates and be more prudent.

3# 944425730
泰国现在已经加息了
估计亚洲会进入新一轮的加息预期期

chinalin2002 发表于 2011-6-2 00:16
It is my pleasure to select reading materials for Follow Me. I realize it is really tough to select a good topic and it really takes much time, therefore, thank eros_zz very much for her/his long-term thoughtful and considerable work. Also thanks are given to bengdi1986 for his commencement of the new version of Follow Me. Hope that we will learn something and improve our English through attending Follow Me. Enjoy it!

Australia GDP Falls Most Since 1991

By Michael Heath

From Bloomberg: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-01/adp-estimates-u-s-companies-added-38-000-employees-in-may.html

Australia’s economy shrank in the first quarter by the most in 20 years as floods hurt exports, even as stronger business investment underscored the central bank’s forecast for a rebound in the second half of the year.

Gross domestic product fell 1.2 percent from the previous three months, when it rose a revised 0.8 percent, the Bureau of Statistics said in Sydney today. Exports slumped 8.7 percent, subtracting 2.1 percentage points from GDP growth, today’s report showed, while machinery and equipment spending jumped 6 percent, adding 0.4 point.

The nation’s dollar rose after the report showed the contraction was smaller than a drop of as much as 2 percent that economists including Goldman Sachs & Partners Australia Pty had forecast. While Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens has held interest rates at 4.75 percent for the past five meetings to help Queensland state recover, investors today boosted bets he’ll raise borrowing costs by August.

“The market was braced for a really big negative so it’s a bit of a relief,” said Su-Lin Ong, senior economist at RBC Capital Markets in Sydney. “The report looks mostly to be reflecting the impact of the Queensland floods on exports; outside of exports, domestic demand is actually pretty resilient.”

RBA Outlook

The local currency rose to as high as $1.0752 before trading at $1.0732 at 4:35 p.m. in Sydney from $1.0672 yesterday in New York. The RBA has pledged to look past data distorted by the natural disasters and said rates will need to rise “at some point” to contain inflation.

Household spending, which accounts for 55 percent of GDP, increased 0.6 percent in the first quarter, adding 0.3 percentage point to growth, today’s report showed. Dwellings rose 4.6 percent, adding 0.3 point.

Compared with a year earlier, the economy expanded 1 percent in the first quarter, today’s report showed, matching economists’ median forecast.

Traders bet there’s a 12 percent chance Stevens will boost the benchmark rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 5 percent at a meeting June 7, a 32 percent chance in July and 50 percent in August, interbank cash-rate futures showed.

The quarterly decline was the biggest drop since Australia’s last recession in 1991 and compared with the median of 25 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey for a 1.1 percent fall in GDP.

Regional Slowdown

Global growth, including the economies of some of Australia’s biggest trading partners, shows signs of weakening.

China’s manufacturing expanded at the slowest pace in nine months in May, a survey of companies released today showed. India’s growth in three months to March 31 was the weakest in five quarters, and Japan’s industrial production rose less than economists forecast in April, reports showed this week. Those three countries accounted for 51 percent of Australia’s total exports so far this year.

Today’s GDP data showed Australia’s household savings ratio climbed to 11.5 percent from 9.7 percent in the previous quarter, the highest level since 2009. Insurance payouts following the January floods contributed to the rise, said Bill Evans, Westpac Banking Corp. (WBC)’s chief economist.

The report, coupled with Australia’s government budget released last month that aims to cool inflation and return to a surplus by 2013, will make it difficult for the RBA to raise rates next week, economists said. “However, the RBA is almost certain to maintain the strong hawkish rhetoric to ensure that markets and the community ‘have been warned’.” Evans said.

2.2
非常感谢热心的楼主

     After reading this article, I got several questions. First, what factor made the local currency appreciate? There is one sentence, I notice, “The nation’s currency has risen 29 percent in the past year as companies including BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP) increase hiring to meet Chinese and Indian demand for iron ore and coal, pushing unemployment below 5 percent. ” Just as we know, our country barely had any negotiation ability on this issue because iron ore and coal are badly in need for China. Then we need more Austrian dollars to pay for the trading. Increase in demand made the local currency stay strong. I don’t know whether I get the correct understanding. In the following part, “the currency’s strength is hurting exporters including Henderson, Western Australia-based shipbuilder Austal Ltd. ” it seems to be paradoxical that export of iron ore and coal makes an obstacle for other exports in Australia indirectly.

     Second, since the country is now suffering a serious economic slowdown after the natural disaster, how can some traders bet there’s a 12 percent chance Stevens will boost the benchmark rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 5 percent at a meeting June 7, a 32 percent chance in July and 50 percent in August just as the article said. Raising interest rate will make it more difficult for the economy to rebound and it can incur more hot money in, consequently making the local currency appreciation more in short time. So I just can't figure out their logic. Anyway, it is a tough choice for the central bank’s monetary policy. There is a little similarity with us China currently, isn’t it?

Pessimistic plus optimistic.
Pessimistic because of the natural disater, which destroyed the east coast. Optimistic about the future rebound. Almost a set pattern for the government to explain ecomomy downturn.
If there is no disater, the economy is sure to pluck up.

Follow Me: 21, 21

22    19   
Although Australia is a developed country, but its foreign trade structure is different with the other developed countries. The primary products take a big proportion of its export, it is almost 75% of the total export value, and that is because Australia is one of countries who own the most abundant natural resources in the world. The deep fall of  GDP is largely due to this vulnerable structure, and the structure is really reliant on states such as Queensland who produces "80 percent of steel-making coal exports from Australia, the world’s biggest supplier, and grows more than 30 percent of the country’s fruit and vegetable ". We can also find the important role of the Queensland form this sentence:" Queensland’s economy contracted 0.6 percent in the three months through March from the previous quarter, while Western Australia’s GDP surged 3.2 percent." Western Australia's surge cannot compensate the lose in Queensland, so there came the GDP's fall. What 's more, the country is now lowering its unemployment by hiring employees for the export industries, it is no doubt that the Australia economy will hurt much when China, Inida and Japan's (main export countries of Australia) manufacturing expanding pace slowed down. The rebound may be credible, but if the government don't try to change the trade structure and the domestic economy distribution, the rise won't last long.

谢谢分享，虽然多，但是这样坚持下来也不错

5,5
The paper is not bad. I take a lot of notes .