《Online reviews can predict long-term returns of individual stocks》
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作者:
Junran Wu, Ke Xu and Jichang Zhao
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最新提交年份:
2019
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英文摘要:
Online reviews are feedback voluntarily posted by consumers about their consumption experiences. This feedback indicates customer attitudes such as affection, awareness and faith towards a brand or a firm and demonstrates inherent connections with a company\'s future sales, cash flow and stock pricing. However, the predicting power of online reviews for long-term returns on stocks, especially at the individual level, has received little research attention, making a comprehensive exploration necessary to resolve existing debates. In this paper, which is based exclusively on online reviews, a methodology framework for predicting long-term returns of individual stocks with competent performance is established. Specifically, 6,246 features of 13 categories inferred from more than 18 million product reviews are selected to build the prediction models. With the best classifier selected from cross-validation tests, a satisfactory increase in accuracy, 13.94%, was achieved compared to the cutting-edge solution with 10 technical indicators being features, representing an 18.28% improvement relative to the random value. The robustness of our model is further evaluated and testified in realistic scenarios. It is thus confirmed for the first time that long-term returns of individual stocks can be predicted by online reviews. This study provides new opportunities for investors with respect to long-term investments in individual stocks.
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中文摘要:
在线评论是消费者自愿发布的关于其消费体验的反馈。该反馈表明了客户对品牌或公司的态度,如情感、意识和信念,并显示了与公司未来销售、现金流和股票定价的内在联系。然而,在线评论对股票长期回报的预测能力,尤其是在个人层面,很少受到研究关注,因此有必要进行全面的探索,以解决现有的争论。本文仅基于在线评论,建立了一个预测具有良好业绩的股票长期收益的方法框架。具体而言,从1800多万个产品评论中推断出的13个类别的6246个特征被选择来构建预测模型。通过交叉验证试验选择最佳分类器,与尖端解决方案相比,准确度有了令人满意的提高,提高了13.94%,其中10项技术指标是特征,相对于随机值,提高了18.28%。在实际场景中进一步评估和验证了模型的鲁棒性。因此,首次证实了通过在线评论可以预测单个股票的长期回报。这项研究为投资者在个人股票长期投资方面提供了新的机会。
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分类信息:
一级分类:Economics 经济学
二级分类:General Economics 一般经济学
分类描述:General methodological, applied, and empirical contributions to economics.
对经济学的一般方法、应用和经验贡献。
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一级分类:Computer Science 计算机科学
二级分类:Social and Information Networks 社会和信息网络
分类描述:Covers the design, analysis, and modeling of social and information networks, including their applications for on-line information access, communication, and interaction, and their roles as datasets in the exploration of questions in these and other domains, including connections to the social and biological sciences. Analysis and modeling of such networks includes topics in ACM Subject classes F.2, G.2, G.3, H.2, and I.2; applications in computing include topics in H.3, H.4, and H.5; and applications at the interface of computing and other disciplines include topics in J.1--J.7. Papers on computer communication systems and network protocols (e.g. TCP/IP) are generally a closer fit to the Networking and Internet Architecture (cs.NI) category.
涵盖社会和信息网络的设计、分析和建模,包括它们在联机信息访问、通信和交互方面的应用,以及它们作为数据集在这些领域和其他领域的问题探索中的作用,包括与社会和生物科学的联系。这类网络的分析和建模包括ACM学科类F.2、G.2、G.3、H.2和I.2的主题;计算应用包括H.3、H.4和H.5中的主题;计算和其他学科接口的应用程序包括J.1-J.7中的主题。关于计算机通信系统和网络协议(例如TCP/IP)的论文通常更适合网络和因特网体系结构(CS.NI)类别。
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一级分类:Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类:Computational Finance 计算金融学
分类描述:Computational methods, including Monte Carlo, PDE, lattice and other numerical methods with applications to financial modeling
计算方法,包括蒙特卡罗,偏微分方程,格子和其他数值方法,并应用于金融建模
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一级分类:Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类:Economics 经济学
分类描述:q-fin.EC is an alias for econ.GN. Economics, including micro and macro economics, international economics, theory of the firm, labor economics, and other economic topics outside finance
q-fin.ec是econ.gn的别名。经济学,包括微观和宏观经济学、国际经济学、企业理论、劳动经济学和其他金融以外的经济专题
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