关于大型项目，您应该知道什么，为什么：概述

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英文标题：
《What You Should Know About Megaprojects, and Why: An Overview》
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作者：
Bent Flyvbjerg
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最新提交年份：
2014
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英文摘要：
  This paper takes stock of megaproject management, an emerging and hugely costly field of study. First, it answers the question of how large megaprojects are by measuring them in the units mega, giga, and tera, concluding we are presently entering a new \"tera era\" of trillion-dollar projects. Second, total global megaproject spending is assessed, at USD 6-9 trillion annually, or 8 percent of total global GDP, which denotes the biggest investment boom in human history. Third, four \"sublimes\" - political, technological, economic, and aesthetic - are identified to explain the increased size and frequency of megaprojects. Fourth, the \"iron law of megaprojects\" is laid out and documented: Over budget, over time, over and over again. Moreover, the \"break-fix model\" of megaproject management is introduced as an explanation of the iron law. Fifth, Albert O. Hirschman\'s theory of the Hiding Hand is revisited and critiqued as unfounded and corrupting for megaproject thinking in both the academy and policy. Sixth, it is shown how megaprojects are systematically subject to \"survival of the unfittest,\" explaining why the worst projects get built instead of the best. Finally, it is argued that the conventional way of managing megaprojects has reached a \"tension point,\" where tradition is challenged and reform is emerging.
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中文摘要：
本文总结了大型项目管理这一新兴且成本高昂的研究领域。首先，它通过以兆、千兆和兆兆为单位来衡量大型项目，回答了大型项目有多大的问题，并得出结论，我们目前正在进入一个万亿美元项目的新“兆兆时代”。其次，据估计，全球大型项目总开支每年为6-9万亿美元，占全球GDP总额的8%，这意味着人类历史上最大的投资热潮。第三，确定了四个“崇高”——政治、技术、经济和美学——来解释大型项目规模和频率的增加。第四，制定并记录了“大型项目的铁律”：预算过高、时间过长、一次又一次。此外，还引入了大型项目管理的“打破-修复模型”，作为对铁律的解释。第五，阿尔伯特·赫希曼（AlbertO.Hirschman）的隐藏之手理论在学术界和政策界都被重新审视和批判为毫无根据和腐败的大项目思维。第六，它展示了大型项目如何系统地受制于“不合格者的生存”，解释了为什么会建造最差的项目，而不是最好的项目。最后，有人认为，管理大型项目的传统方式已达到“紧张点”，传统受到挑战，改革正在兴起。
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分类信息：

一级分类：Quantitative Finance        数量金融学
二级分类：General Finance        一般财务
分类描述：Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
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