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The austerity measures are needed to secure a 12 billion euro ($17 billion) tranche of aid and to put Greece on track for a new bailout package from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund, preventing another shock to the global financial system.
To this point, “it has been more or less clear that the solutions that EU officials have put forward are essentially short-term fixes that are akin to putting out wildfires, but the larger blaze rages on,” said John Kicklighter, currency strategist for DailyFX.com.
Although Prime Minister George Papandreou is expected to win parliamentary approval of the additional austerity measures, “politicians are unlikely to give their approval for this austerity package without substantial debate and threats of opposition,” Sara Yates and Yuki Sakasai, strategists at Barclays Capital, said in a note to clients. “This will weigh on the euro’s performance.”
Greek parliament is scheduled to vote on the austerity measures Wednesday. They will also plan to vote Thursday on steps to implement it.
Greek newspaper Ekathimerini on Monday reported that as many as four parliamentary members of Papandreou’s ruling Pasok party are considering voting against the austerity plan. Pasok holds a five-seat majority in the 300-seat chamber.If all four lawmakers oppose the government, Pasok would be left with a one-seat margin as it attempts to pass the measure unless it receives support from another smaller party, the newspaper noted.
Even so, Michael Woolfolk, managing director at BNY Mellon Global Markets, said “the real risk is not a failure of the austerity vote, but failure of the Greek public to support the austerity vote.”
“Without popular support for these measures, they cannot be successfully implemented in the long-term,” he said in a note to clients Monday. “So “rather than ‘sell in May and go away,’ this will be a ‘working summer’ with elevated volatility requiring players to remain especially alert of changing market conditions.”
Contagion worry：
Investors have also been increasingly concerned about contagion of Greece’s debt problems into the euro zone.
In a speech given in Berlin Monday, Jürgen Stark, the German member of the European Central Bank’s board, said debt restructuring isn’t an alternative option for Greece and a Greek default could trigger a banking crisis that may spill over to other euro-zone nations, according to the Wall Street Journal.
“The effects of a restructuring on the stability of the financial market system in Europe are not foreseeable and could dwarf the impact of the Lehman insolvency. Anyone who claims otherwise, mistakes the complexity of the situation,” he said, according to the newspaper
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