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本期摘要：
1.希腊议会通过财政节俭计划，使得接下来欧盟对希腊的救助措施能够顺利进行。但正如我们多次强调的，欧洲周边国家的问题是资不抵债的问题，而不是资金周转的问题。欧盟提供援助只能帮希腊借新还旧。这一举措更多的是为希腊和其他周边国家争取时间，让西班牙等国向市场证明他们与希腊是不同的，让欧盟在(不久的)将来有更多的时间来形成管理成员国主权债务重组的机制。
2.国际货币基金组织(IMF)周四(6月30日)公布的数据显示，美元占全球外汇储备的比重降至12年以来最低水平。今年第一季度全球外汇储备中美元比重从去年第四季度的61.5%降至60.7%，创1999年3月来最低水平，上年同期为61.6%。IMF从1995年开始统计各国外汇储备。1995年12月31日，美元在各国外汇储备的比重为59%，一年后上升到62%，2001年底高达71.5%
3.上周市场风险偏好继续维持上升态势，主要是由于希腊成功通过了第二次撙节计划以及美国超出市场预期的经济数据。尽管欧洲方面数据大多数逊于预期，但是市场情绪并没有受到太大的影响。整体而言，市场风险情绪的高涨进一步纾缓了欧元区周边债券市场的紧张局势。
4.本周公布了中国6月份官方制造业采购经理人指数，本月PMI为50.9，相比五月份下降1.1%。这与我们的预测基本一致，但是低于市场51.5的预测。这是28个月以来的最低值。该数据可能反映了包括存货下降，汽车需求降低，能源短缺和信贷紧缩等短期影响因素。我们相信，采购经理人指数7月份可能仍然会保持低位（可能仍然保持在51附近），但是第三季度后半期，随着这些短期因素逐渐消失，采购经理指数等可能会逐渐复苏。我们预计在10月份到11月份采购经理指数可能会回到比较正常的53的水平。
5.我们相信制造业活动在短期内（接下来几个月）可能会保持低位，但随着信贷政策变得更加宽松，以及短期内影响增长的因素逐渐消失（存活下降，能源短缺，汽车销售走弱等），第四季度的增长应该会恢复。
6.在希腊批准实施财政撙节法案以后,原油和工业金属继续走高。原油全面收复自上周国际能源机构投放石油战略储备以来的失地
Highlights of this Week:
1. The current chapter of the Greek crisis is drawing to a close. Greece passed the austerity votes, clearing the way for the fifth loan tranche. EU agreement on the voluntary rollover is expected shortly and a new loan program will be approved.
2. The decline in the USD’s share of reserves is now down to 60.7% for allocated reserves from 61.8% a year earlier and 66.5% 5 years before. This data does not account for valuation changes, but speaks to a glacial” change in the USD share of reserves at an approximate decline in share of 1% per annum.
3. The “risk on” tone remained firmly for last week, thanks to both a successful second Greek austerity vote and some better than expected data in the US. The market seemed happy to shrug off some weaker than expected data in Europe, instead drawing comfort from some further easing of stress in peripheral bond market
4. The official manufacturing PMI for June came in at 50.9, down 1.1ppts from May. It is broadly in line with our forecast but lower than the consensus estimate of 51.5. It is the weakest reading in 28 months. This weakness reflects a few temporary factors such as inventory destocking, weaker auto demand, power shortage, and credit tightening. We believe the PMI will remain weak (again at around 51) in July, but may recover gradually in late Q3 as these short-term headwinds begin to dissipate. We expect the PMI to recover to a more normalized level of 53 in Oct-Nov.
5. We believe that manufacturing activities will remain weak in the short-term (for another few months), but will likely recover in Q4 as credit policy becomes more relaxed and several other short-term headwinds against growth (e.g., inventory destocking, power shortage, and weakness in auto sales) subside.
6. Crude oil and industrial metals continued to move higher after the Greek parliament approved implementation bills. Oil prices have been erasing losses triggered by IEA’s announcement for the SPR release
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