【德意志银行 Deutsche Bank】Monthly Update

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Deutsche Bank Monthly Update 14 January 2011
China Monthly Update (Inflation upside risks) & Hong Kong Monthly Update (Hold rolldown position)

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关键词：Deutsche Deutsch Monthly update month Bank update 德意志银行 Monthly Deutsche

不错的资料。。

分别为6 页，  7 页报告, 概要：

香港：
Hold rolldown position
􀂄 Economic outlook: A moderation in export growth this year should bring
slower overall growth. Inflation is rising due to external and local (property)
factors.
􀂄 Main risks: Retail sales boom shows no signs of abating and could drive
growth higher than expected.
􀂄 Strategy recommendations: Fundamental outlook on HKD IRS remains
intact and we recommend hold the 6m2Y HKR IRS receiving position.

中国大陆：
Inflation upside risks
􀂄 Economic outlook: PMI and export growth moderated in December but our
growth outlook for 2011 remains on track. Property tax will be rolled out in
Chongqing and Shanghai soon. Fiscal policy will support public housing and
tax cuts for individuals and services.
􀂄 Main risks: Monetary policy will likely remain too loose for this year against
the 4% inflation target. Failure to tighten policy aggressively early this year
and an increase in velocity will generate upside risks to our 4.4% inflation
forecast.
􀂄 Strategy recommendations: We raise our forecast for the topside of 3m
Shibor from 4.5% to 5.0% and recommend holding the 2Y and 5Y Shibor and
Repo basis paying position.