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对国际货币基金组织(IMF)/世界银行会议的观察
我参加了一些关于商品(市场)和中国-印度(经济)的会议.
在星期五晚上, 新加坡总理邀请了一些演讲者参加了新加坡ZF组织的会议.
Trichet(欧洲央行行长), (哈佛前校长)Larry Summers, (联储前主席)Paul Volker, Chuck Price, 和ASEAN(东盟)国家的财政部长在那里.
但是一个来自中国的ZF官员都没有在那里. 我猜我被邀请到那里是扮演成中国已经被邀到那里.
会议象一出围绕着总理李显龙为中心的戏剧,议题是全球化的未来, 大家奉承李显龙象一个王子, 当然了,他的确是 世界上有两个地区王国被达沃斯经济论坛那帮人拍马屁, 约旦和新加坡.
达沃斯经济论坛那帮人在经济问题上表现的像共和党，在社会问题上却像民主党。.
但是,他们决定抛开道德上的疑虑,去拍李显龙和阿卜杜拉(约旦国王)的马屁.
我尝试找出新加坡被选为会议主办地的原因,没有人知道. 有人说可能没有其它人愿意承办, 有人猜测新加坡可能争取工作做得很好.
我想这是一个奇怪的选择,因为新加坡与热门话题中国,印度差得远.
孟买或者上海是更为适当的选择.
东盟已经失败了,它的GDP以名义美元计算已经十年没有变化.
新加坡人均年收入在25000美元也维持不变, 但同期中国的GDP已经增至三倍.
我想那些发问者在竞相赞扬新加坡是一个全球化成功的典型故事, 但实际上, 新加坡的成功大部分来自于替印尼腐败的商人和官员洗黑钱. 印尼现没有钱, 所以新加坡现做的不太好,为了支撑它的经济,新加坡正在建立赌场吸引来自中国的贪污黑钱.
那些西方人不知道他们在谈论什么.但除了一些令人作呕的恭维,还是有一些有用的信息.
Trichet(欧洲央行行长)看起来对欧元区经济很看牛,他提到欧元区经济增长率已经赶上了美国,还谈到2007预测增长, 听他的语调比我们机构观点还更加看牛的多. 因曰元在下降趋势中, 我看不出欧元的升势如何停止.
哈佛大学前任校长桑莫斯Larry Summers和美联储前主席沃尔克(Paul Volker)十分担忧美国的经济.你可能已经知道了,美联储前主席格林斯潘Alan Greenspan说话风格跟以前一样. 在上次CLSA里昂证券举行的讲座上,他谈论得象附和他的批评家. 这里流动着一种对美国经济崩溃的惊恐. 很多美国人以为人民币的重估(升值)会救美国(原文如此), 但这只是一个梦想, 这是我的看法.
很多人都担心收入的不平等影响全球化的未来, 因为一般的西方工人看不到工资的增长, 可能会投票反对全球化.但我想他们理解廉价消费品对他们带来的利益. 而且, 随着通涨的到来,这还提醒了西方消费者相关的好处.
没有人担忧中国和印度的增长前景, 印度Planning Minister(部长)非常牛气, 谈到9%的持续增长率.
我的感觉就是政策制定者是在描述一个短期经济前景但预期美国经济在某一时点崩溃,美国人认为人民币升值可以救美国,所以他们会继续施加压力给中国.
I participated in the panels on commodity and China-India and in some obligatory dinner parties.
On Friday night, the Singapore PM invited the speakers at the meetings that Singapore government organized.
Trichet, Larry Summers, Paul Volker, Chuck Price, the finance ministers of ASEAN countries were there.
No government official from China was there. I guess I was there to make it look like China was represented.
The dinner was turned into an Oprah with PM Lee Hsein Long at the center. The topic was on the future of
globalization. People fawned him like a prince. Of course, he is.
There are two reigning royalties in the world that the Davos crowd kiss up to, Jordan and Singapore.
The Davos crowd are Republican on economic issues and Democratic on social issues.
Somehow, they mange to put aside their moral misgivings and kiss up to Lee Hsein and Abdullah.
I tried to find out why Singapore was chosen to host the conference. Nobody knew.
Some said that probably no one else wanted it. Some guessed that Singapore did a good selling job.
I thought that it was a strange choice because Singapore was so far from any action or the hot topic of China and India.
Mumbai or Shanghai would be a lot more appropriate.
ASEAN has been a failure. Its GDP in nominal dollar terms has not changed for ten years.
Singapore’s per capita income has not changed either at $25,000. China’s GDP in dollar has tripled during the same period.
I thought that the questioners were competing with each other to praise Singapore as the success story
of globalization. Actually, Singapore’s success came mostly from being the money laundering center for
corrupt Indonesian businessmen and government officials.
Indonesia has no money. So Singapore isn’t doing well. To sustain its economy, Singapore is building
casinos to attract corruption money from China. These western people didn’t know what they were talking
about. Aside from the nauseating pleasantries, some useful information came out of it.
Trichet sounded very bullish on euro-zone economy. He noted that euro-zone was catching up with the US in
growth rate and talked about further gain in 2007. His tone was much more bullish than our house view.
As Japan is surprising on the downside, I don’t see how the rise of euro-yen could be stopped.
Larry Summers and Paul Volker were very worried about the US economy. As you probably know, Alan Greenspan
is talking the same way. At the CLSA conference last week, he talked like on of his critics. There is a
fear of a US collapse. Many Americans think that an Rmb reval would save the US [sic]. This is just a
dream, in my view.
Most were worried about the future of globalization due to income inequality. As average workers in the
west are not seeing wasge incrase, many may vote against globalization. I thought that they were
understanding the benefit from cheap consumer goods. However, as inflation comes back, it does admonish
the benefits for western consumers.
No one was worried about the growth outlook for China or India. The Indian Planning Minister was very
bullish, talking about 9% forever.
My sense is that policymakers are related about the short-term economic outlook but anticipate the US
collapse at some point. Americans think that Rmb reval could save the US. So they would keep
pressuring China.
Andy Xie
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