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European Banks
The stress in bank funding
and policy options
Bank funding remains a key source of risk for bank
earnings, ability to lend and a drag on economic
recovery. We remain concerned that the stress in the
term markets – although it is substantially lower in
short-term funding given backstops and large buffers –
will lead some banks to shrink books, and that the risks
of a credit crunch in Southern Europe are rising. Policy
response is a key catalyst and we explore the options for
a funding circuit breaker: an EFSF temporary funding
guarantee could have a big impact as part of the tool-kit.
European banks begin now from a better starting
point than in ‘08 – despite market fears. Our new
funding survey suggests Europe’s leading banks
are on average issued ~90% of their term funding
needs for 2011 with significant liquidity pools, better
solvency and resolute ECB commitment to support the
system.
ECB support for bank funding is deep; it is also
growing, notably in Italy. We have regularly shown
the periphery is already dependent on the ECB: 20% of
Greek banking assets, 15% of Irish, 8% of Portuguese &
4% of Cypriot are funded at ECB window. In July Italian
bank usage nearly doubled to
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