20110922 Follow Me 135 BY Zz

When the Depression failed to respond to monetary policy but instead deepened and spread, Keynes went back to the drawing board. By 1936 he had worked out a new theory of slumps resistant to the usual cures of easy money and low interest rates, calling it, with his trademark lack of modesty, “The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money.”
这种货币政策非但没有产生正面效果，反而加深加宽了衰退的深度和广度，于是凯恩斯回到了书桌前。通常的治疗措施，像降低利率、增强资金流动性这些并不见效，凯恩斯针对这种有免疫力的经济衰退在1936年炮制出了新的理论，命名为“就业、利息和货币通论”，带着他一贯缺乏谦虚的特点。

What never changed during the Depression and the Second World War was Keynes’s positive mind-set.
不管是经历大萧条还是二战，凯恩斯的乐观心态从未改变。

On what, exactly, did Keynes’s faith in the future rest, apart from his upbeat temperament and can-do British spirit? Confidence in the “apparatus of the mind,” his term for thinking like an economist. His great innovation was to create — in parallel with America’s Fisher — an “economics of the whole” that was useful for understanding and treating temporary but dangerous economic breakdowns.
除了乐观性格外，还有什么支撑他对未来的信念呢？对经济学“心智工具”的信任，使他的思维方式像经济学家。他的一项巨大创新即是建立了“整体经济学”，对理解、应对暂时的，却是危险的经济下滑很有帮助，这一贡献与美国的欧文·费雪齐平。

KEYNES straddled the Old World notion that the best a member of the working classes could do was to accept his station in life, and the New World order in which it was accepted that nations and people could make their own destinies. By the time he settled on economics, the once dismal science had become, if not exactly gay, then no longer grim, hopeless or resigned.
凯恩斯跨立于新旧两个世界之间，旧世界的观念是，作为工薪阶层所能做的最好的选择就是认命，而新世界的秩序里，大到国家，小到个体，都能够塑造自己的命运。当他投身经济学的那一刻，这个曾经沉闷的学科不再有阴森无望的气质，如果严格说来也谈不上绚丽多彩的话。

Alfred Marshall, the man most responsible for Keynes’s career choice, was also the one most responsible for the new way of thinking. To paraphrase a great American economist, Paul Samuelson: before Marshall, economics was about what you couldn’t change. The new economics was about what you could.
凯恩斯的事业选择很大程度上缘于阿尔弗雷德.马歇尔,此人同样在很大程度上引领了新的思维方式。保罗．萨缪尔森这样诠释这位伟大的美国经济学家：在马歇尔之前，经济学探讨的是你无法改变什么。有了马歇尔，经济学转向你可以改变什么。

Consider the dismal science when Marshall took it up. There was no cheering up Karl Marx, who, landing in London in 1849, witnessed the Victorian economic miracle and, to quote Gladstone, 20 years of improvement in the “average condition of the British laborer ... unexampled in the history of any country and of any age.” The British founders of political economy were scarcely less glum. John Stuart Mill, a libertarian, socialist and supporter of unions and women’s rights, doubted whether democratic reforms or technological progress could have much effect on how the average Briton lived.
设想马歇尔刚涉足这门沉闷学科的情景吧。1849年卡尔·马克思登陆伦敦时，迎接他的没有喝彩欢呼声，他目睹了维多利亚时代的经济奇迹，引述格莱斯顿的话说“史无前例,英国工人身处的整体形势”连续二十年不断进步,然而英国政治经济学的奠基人们却未减一丝阴郁。古典自由派、支持联盟和女权的社会主义者约翰·穆勒怀疑，民主改革或技术革新是否能大大改善英国人的生活水平。

When he published “Das Kapital” in 1867, Marx claimed that he was revealing society’s “law of motion.” Yet he had never bothered to visit a single factory. Marshall devoted months every year to touring factories in virtually every major industry, interviewing businessmen, trade union leaders and workers. A trip to America confirmed that competition was the ingenious mechanism that compelled managers to constantly improve their operations, then to share the gains with workers.  If wages depended on productivity, workers themselves — and their elected representatives — could influence their prospects by pursuing or promoting mobility, education and public health.
1867年，马克思发表《资本论》时宣称，书中揭示了社会的“运行规律”，而他从未讨扰自己随便走访一家工厂。而马歇尔每年花数月时间走访工厂，基本上把大的分属不同产业的工厂走遍了，他采访商人、贸易联盟的领导和工人。他的美国之行证实了一点，竞争是绝妙的途径，它迫使管理者不断改进经营方式，并与工人一同分享利润。如果生产力决定了工资的多寡，那么工人们——以及他们之中卓越的代表——通过追求或改进人员流动、加强自身教育和公共卫生的建设，就能开创自己的大好前途。

The new, cheerful social science that Marshall pioneered and Keynes and others innovated was a genuine revolution in human thinking that changed the lives of everyone on the globe. What would Keynes say if he were, say, to appear on CNBC tomorrow? That we’ve overcome a dozen challenges as bad or worse, that the tenfold rise in standards since Jane Austen’s lifetime shows that we’ve done more things right than wrong, and that the “apparatus of the mind” — which demands that we let facts change our minds, engage our critics and see common ground — is infinitely more helpful in a crisis than ideology or raw emotion.
这个崭新的、令人鼓舞的社会学科由马歇尔作开路先驱，凯恩斯和其他人不断创新，掀起了人类思维方式真正的革命，改变了地球上每个人的生活。如果凯恩斯明天上财经电视台会说些什么呢？他会说，我们已克服了许多严峻的、更严峻的挑战，从简·奥斯汀时代到现在，人们的生活水准翻了十倍，这说明我们做的正确的事情大于犯下的失误，而经济学的“心智工具”——它要求的是让事实改变我们的思考，让事实影响评论家的观点，看到其中的共同之处——在危机中这绝对比空想或盲目乐观更有帮助。

And what would Keynes do now? Go shopping, I suspect. This was the “incorrigible optimist,” his biographer Robert Skidelsky relates, who made a big bet on the United States recovery in 1936 and hung on when it collapsed again in 1937. It may have looked like midnight but Keynes knew that morning would come again.
想想凯恩斯现在会做什么呢？我猜是血拼。凯恩斯的传记作者罗伯特·斯基德尔斯基这样写到，他是个“不可救药的乐观主义者”，在1936年大胆下赌美国的复苏，到1937年经济再次萎靡时仍不改其志。也许这就像漆黑的子夜时分，不过凯恩斯明白，黎明会重新到来。

以上翻译摘自 译言网
http://article.yeeyan.org/view/236605/218936

when we all believe that the morning will come ,then nothing could beat us .

Common sense is not that common!

The morning comes slowly, but, we should be optimistic as Keynes was.

The Sunny Economist
这能否叫新经济啊，呵呵

讲得十分好  谢谢了。

本想膜拜下王航的，结果是转载......