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Renewables 2024 Analysis and forecast to 2030
Global renewables growth set to outpace current government goals for 2030Global renewable capacity is expected to grow by 2.7 times by 2030, surpassing countries’ current ambitions by nearly 25%, but it still falls short of tripling. Climate and energy security policies in nearly 140 countries have played a crucial role in making renewables cost-competitive with fossil-fired power plants. This is unlocking new demand from the private sector and households, while industrial policies that encourage local manufacturing of solar panels and wind turbines are fostering domestic markets. However, this is not quite sufficient to reach the goal of tripling renewable energy capacity worldwide established by nearly 200 countries at the COP28 climate summit.Considering existing policies and market conditions, our main case sees 5 500 gigawatts (GW) of new renewable capacity becoming operational by 2030. This implies that global renewable capacity additions will continue to increase every year, reaching almost 940 GW annually by 2030 – 70% more than the record level achieved last year. Solar PV and wind together account for 95% of all renewable capacity growth through the end of this decade due their growing economic attractiveness in almost all countries. The strong pace of global progress on renewables expansion signals an opportunity for countries to announce enhanced ambitions in the next round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) due in 2025. Only 14 countries had explicit renewable capacity targets in the NDCs they had designed before COP28. In our main case, nearly 70 countries, which collectively account for 80% of global capacity, reach or surpass their current ambitions for 2030. China drastically dominates among these overachievers, but other major economies, such as Brazil, India and the United States, also contribute.
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