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Title: Industrial Dynamics, International Trade, and Economic GrowthSpeaker: Wang Yong （王勇）, Hong Kong University of Science and TechnologyTime: 13:55-15:30,Oct 14, FridayLocation: 颐德楼H406, H406 Yide Building, Liulin Organizer: 楚天舒 经济与管理研究院 副教授Abstract: This paper presents a dynamic general-equilibrium model to illustrate how International trade and dynamic trade policies affect the industrial evolution and economic growth in a two-country world. In each country there is potentially an infinite number of possible industries, which differ in their capital intensities. Closed-form solutions are obtained to fully characterize the inverse-V-shaped path of the industrial dynamics, output and consumption dynamics and all the underlying price changes along the endogenous growth path. We show, among others, that the industrial upgrading and output growth can be facilitated or hampered by the trade partner's investment-specific technology progress, depending on whether the intertemporal elasticity of substitution is larger than or smaller than unity because it determines whether the intertemporal terms-of-trade effect dominates the intertemporal market-size effect. We also show that accelerating trade liberalization may have a non-monotonic impact on the speed of industrial upgrading and economic growth.
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