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“JUST when I thought I was out, they pull me back in.” Investors must be tempted to echo the words of Al Pacino in “The Godfather: Part III”. Markets rally every time euro-zone leaders announce a plan to solve their debt crisis, as they did again on October 27th. But within a few days, it becomes apparent that each package has not solved the underlying problems, and investors are pulled back into the mayhem.
On October 31st the unheralded announcement by George Papandreou, the Greek prime minister, that he would call a referendum on the debt deal turned market sentiment drastically. It prompted intense pressure from Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, and Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president, that any such referendum be held as soon as possible and become a vote on staying in the euro. By November 3rd, as The Economist went to press, the prospect of a vote that could pave the way for an exit from the euro, and a disorderly default, had pushed the Greek government to the brink of collapse.
A Greek default would alarm investors in other indebted nations, such as Portugal and Italy, and might trigger the very financial meltdown the authorities have been striving to avoid. European bank shares, which rallied on initial news of the deal, slumped again on the referendum news (see left-hand chart). There is also the risk that depositors will shift their funds from banks in weak countries to safer havens. David Owen, an economist at Jefferies International, notes that Portuguese and Irish banks have pushed up deposit rates in recent months in an attempt to dissuade savers from withdrawing their money.
If Mr Papandreou is ousted or his government falls, a referendum becomes much less likely. But uncertainty about Greece’s ability to stay the painful course and remain in the euro will persist.
Doubts about the deal had emerged even before the Greek thunderbolts. It was not clear that the euro-zone leaders had done enough to bolster their rescue fund, the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), so that it could plausibly stand behind the debts of Italy and Spain. Ten-year Italian bond yields rose back above 6%, with the spread over German Bunds reaching a record euro-era high.
European leaders hoped that emerging economies, particularly China, might put money into a special purpose investment vehicle (unhappily, SPIV) capitalised by the EFSF. That would help bolster the EFSF’s remaining firepower to
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