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Clean Tech Investment Handbook_Yuanta.pdf
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Table of contents
Clean tech investment in China ........................................................................... 4
Levelized cost of electricity analysis .................................................................... 9
Energy demand and supply in China .................................................................. 17
Nuclear - riding through the shadow................................................................. 29
China’s nuclear capacity is still growing ............................................................ 31
China aims for state-of-the-art technology ....................................................... 34
NDRC project approval - a lengthy process ........................................................ 36
Supportive govt. policies, until recently ............................................................. 40
Inland expansion subject to scrutiny ................................................................. 41
Nuclear capacity forecast scenarios ................................................................... 44
Uranium still a potential bottleneck ................................................................... 45
Wind: coming off the peak ................................................................................ 48
Analysis of wind turbine characteristics ............................................................. 71
WTG Direct-Drive Technology ........................................................................... 75
Direct Drive PM rare earth supply ...................................................................... 80
Global rare earth supply and demand ................................................................ 85
China’s tightening of supply ............................................................................. 89
Smart grid - removing the bottlenecks .............................................................. 92
An introduction to smart grids .......................................................................... 94
Where to invest in China’s smart grid ................................................................ 96
China’s ultra high voltage grid .......................................................................... 97
1000kV UHV AC demo project cost analysis ..................................................... 103
Cost analysis for digital substations ................................................................ 106
Investment forecast for China’s UHV grid ........................................................ 109
Advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) ........................................................... 116
UHV equipment and vendors .......................................................................... 120
1000kV UHV transmission project description ................................................. 121
China’s digital substations ............................................................................. 123
Energy storage - an integrated part of the smart grid ....................................... 125
Lithium carbonate: Mining a future fuel ........................................................... 126
Lithium mining in China ................................................................................. 132
Electric vehicle and energy storage.................................................................. 135
Lithium-ion battery: the ignition key ............................................................... 138
Characteristics of lithium-ion batteries ........................................................... 142
Electric car models and battery packs .............................................................. 146
Solar-close to inflection point ......................................................................... 148
Polysilicon production capacity ....................................................................... 151
Polysilicon production costs ........................................................................... 154
Solar wafer manufacturing process ................................................................. 157
Solar system IRR model in China ..................................................................... 166
Polysilicon production process ........................................................................ 170
Emerging technology: diamond wire saws........................................................ 175
Emerging technology: casting mono ................................................................ 179
Emerging technology: solar CIGS thin film ....................................................... 181
Emerging technology: concentrated PV ............................................................ 186
Emerging technology: dye-sensitized cells ...................................................... 188
Solar thermal technology ................................................................................ 190
Waste Water Treatment: Quenching an insatiable thirst..................................... 193
Policies give strong support............................................................................ 195
Potential upside from tariff hikes .................................................................... 198
China’s water industry - value chain ............................................................... 202
China’s water resources and demand .............................................................. 205
Waste water treatment status in China ............................................................. 209
Water project IRR in China .............................................................................. 217
Membrane is the most effective treatment method ........................................... 218
Downstream Attraction I - water recycling ....................................................... 220
Downstream Attraction II - sludge treatment ................................................... 222
Waste-to-Energy- heading for consolidation ................................................... 223
China waste-to-energy value chain ................................................................. 234
Waste-to-energy project IRR .......................................................................... 236
Laws, regulations, and policies ....................................................................... 237
Appendix I: Valuation and Stock Performance – Yuanta Estimates ...................... 259
Appendix 2: Valuation and Stock Performance – Bloomberg Consensus ............. 260
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