20111116 Follow Me 190 No winners in a trade war

I have two oldsayings to describe the situation. "Kiss the child for the nurse's sake." and "The crane and the swan mussel fight, and the old fisherman wins both easily".
Just as the article says that if China's yuan appreciates as quickly as what the US expected, there are two potential results. One is that some other countries' exports subsitute China's, China lose and US's economy won't be better off. The other is that in the short run, US people will be hurt again heavily apart from the jobless situation-they must afford more expensive goods.
Then, why does US insist doing so? I guess it's because that China's rising economy has put it to a position as US's rival. Whereas US has to face severe economic situations, China can still enjoy the relative low currency rates, which makes the US to be jealous of. Maybe US feels that it has to face with a kind of unfair competition in the world market and that makes it very uncomfortable. Therefore, what US engages to do is mainly to deprive China of the so-called special rights to export in the world market, but not in the sense of saving the domestic economic situation itself. And, if US doesn't reach its goal, its appeal will be noticed by the world and more pressures will be put on China. Even if US finally accept all the conditions China asks for (In fact, it's a process of negotiation, and both sides are sure to make a concession), China will feel "Ok, I win", and US will show up as a big good person, and the mutual relationship will seem more close and in the long run, US gets its benefit.
That's what US really wants.

The RMB should not appreciate , in fact, since the reform and opening-up, the RMB has risen nearly 50%, far higher than the value of the renminbi itself.
Obviously, this is the  conspiracy of United States  - - - - the United States is restricting China's development from economic, military and other fields .

good article，

i agree with the point and thanks a lot for sharing. i have learned more from it.

我们需要双赢，实际上却只有竞争

No good for trade war... Again US politicizes the Yuan appreciation issue....They just want to refrain China's rapid development...The cunning Ob*ma party just consider America's interest but ingores mutual benefits.... As the article mentioned, the US politicians unfriendly take China as its scapegoat for its awkward economics.... Creating more jobs, increasing economics growth,via forcing China Yuan appriciation? Definitely fallacy....They are just too silly and responsiblity-dodging.... So I want to tell Mr. Ob*ma, dont' make excuses for yourself basing on other countries.

Very good artical. Bashing over Yuan seems like a political strategy for the U.S government to diverge the public belief of their own economic problem to other countries' fault.

Every thing has its cost and utility. The USA gonverment always thinks if Yuan goes on rising, their domestic unemployment rate would come down, and this would be their utility. But meanwhile, the cost of life would rise also, and then the Americans will ask for improving wages, unfortunately this will in turn cause the firms' cost risie and a new round of unemployment. So just a job can't solve this problem, and USA's problem can't be solved by Yuan's rise, too. For China, if Yuan goes on rising,  there will cause big problems to our agriculture and small firms. The cost is too high, and only cheaper imports of American goods can't make up this.  However, if the utility is big enough, we can say it is  likely then. This calls for conditional appreciation.But how big our utility should be?  I think we could ask for technologies, this would be a big cake.

Terrific！