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20111206-Merrill Lynch-Asia Pacific Macro Year Ahead 2012[1].pdf
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As the markets meander into 2012, we train our focus and provide views on
three key themes – the approaching regime change in China and its impact,
how deleveraging in the developed economies can impact Asia, and the
possibility that next year, the world fares well after all. The way these
dynamics play out will decisively move the Asian markets in 2012, in our view.
China: Regime change and the economy
In 2012, China could achieve a soft-landing in terms of growth at 8.6%, despite
strong headwind. CPI inflation could fall noticeably, but rebound to above 4% at
the year-end. A key macro event to watch for will be the leadership change. On
policies, the government will likely continue its “loose fiscal, tight monetary” policy
stance, though falling inflation risks allow it to be more growth friendly. As
conservatism dominates during leadership change, structural reforms may –
unfortunately – take a back seat, in our view.
Developed world deleveraging: Impact on Asia
Empirically, a long period of deleveraging nearly always follows a major financial
crisis. The consequences are slow economic growth in the post crisis period. We
think that Asia could be affected by two major channels – first, exports and
second, the banking channels. Both can impact growth in the region, although the
latter could have a more dramatic impact if the situation in Europe deteriorates
further due to the affect on trade finance, as it did back in 2008/09.
What if the world is OK in 2012?
Although a low probably scenario, one thematic worth keeping an eye on is what
if the US unemployment improves and the US consumer becomes less
pessimistic on the economy? What if the ECB responds to austerity measures
with policy easing and Europe avoids tipping into recession? What if weaker
global demand feeds through to lower inflation in China, which allows it to ease
policy? We explore this scenario and the impact on Asia.
2012, the Year Ahead: Our views by asset class
In this document, we also present our overall views for 2012 at the macro level,
and the outlook for each asset class in separate sections, including – Economics,
Equity Strategy, Credit Strategy, Equity Derivatives, and FX & Rates.
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