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In a bear case Brent crude oil prices could fall to $75 per barrel
2011 average year price: $100.00 / barrel
2012 average year price: $100.00 / barrel
Oil supplies are expected to recover in 2012 with production from the North Sea and West Africa having stabilized and production picking up in Libya. However, demand is slowing, and prices are expected to fall in the first half of 2012. In their bear case, Morgan Stanley analysts expect prices to fall to $75.00 / barrel, and rise to $115.00 / barrel in their bull case.
Natural gas prices are expected to decline as YoY inventories reach record levels
2011 average year price: $4.20 / million BTUs
2012 average year price: $3.85 / million BTUs
Natural gas is expected to be oversupplied in 2012. Year-over-year inventories are expected to reach record levels between end-March and end-October causing prices to ease.
Aluminium prices could fall as much as 12% in 2012 from 2011 prices
2011 average year price: $2,500.00 / tonne
2012 average year price: $2,300.00 / tonne
Morgan Stanley is generally cautious on base metals, but relatively optimistic on aluminum. They note that prices are below marginal cost and some high cost producers are closing capacity.
Copper tends to underperform during global economic slowdowns but is expected to outperform base metals
2011 average year price: $9,200.00 / tonne
2012 average year price: $8,400.00 / tonne
Copper could also be an outperforming base metal due to tight supplies. The analysts believe it could be as late as 2014 before the supplies are sufficiently replenished.
Nickel prices on average are expected to decline 7% in 2012 from a year ago
2011 average year price: $23,700.00 / tonne
2012 average year price: $22,000.00 / tonne
Nickel prices are linked with Chinese stainless steel production and exports, which could fall because of a decline in industrial production.
Zinc is in oversupply and prices could fall to $2,100 per tonne
2011 average year price: $2,300.00 / tonne
2012 average year price: $2,100.00 / tonne
Global zinc demand stayed strong in 2011 because of increased consumption in China and emerging markets. The global zinc market is oversupplied and demand is waning.
Gold's safe haven status could drive prices up to $2,200 per ounce
2011 average year price: $1,612.00 / ounce
2012 average year price: $2,200.00 / ounce
Gold is expected to be in high demand as investors seek safe havens. Prices should also be supported in the expected low or negative real interest rate environment.
Silver prices are volatile and could hit $50 an ounce
2011 average year price: $38.00 / ounce
2012 average year price: $50.00 / ounce
Silver is another safe haven that is cheap relative to gold. However, silver prices are much more volatile and much more vulnerable to weak industrial demand.
Platinum will continue to underperform gold and silver, but is attractive in the medium-term
2011 average year price: $1,784.00 / ounce
2012 average year price: $1,829.00 / ounce
Platinum lacks safe haven status and has limited investment demand. The global economic slowdown and a decline in discretionary spending could see demand decline.
Cotton prices are expected to fall 20% because of declining demand
2011-2012 average year price: $1.00 / pound
2012-2013 average year price: $0.80 / pound
The decline in retail sales across developed markets has seen demand for cotton go down. Chinese purchases are expected slow significantly in March and U.S. export demand is declining. Furthermore, the absence of a solution to Europe's debt crisis will also put pressure on prices.
Note: Agriculture commodities are in US marketing years: wheat (Jun-May), cotton (Aug-Jul), corn & soybeans (Sep-Aug), sugar & coffee (Oct-Sep)
Sugar prices will be pressured because of increased global supplies
2011-2012 average year price: $0.22 / pound
2012-2013 average year price: $0.19 / pound
Sugar supplies in the Northern Hemisphere are expected to rise, and Brazil's production is also expected to be stronger than expected. After the flooding, Thailand's sugar production is also starting to recover pressuring sugar prices.
Note: Agriculture commodities are in US marketing years: wheat (Jun-May), cotton (Aug-Jul), corn & soybeans (Sep-Aug), sugar & coffee (Oct-Sep)
Coffee
2011-2012 average year price: $2.38 / lb
2012-2013 average year price: $2.45 / lb
The supply outlook is bearish with production pulling back in Brazil, Vietnam and Columbia. This will be bullish for prices.
Note: Agriculture commodities are in US marketing years: wheat (Jun-May), cotton (Aug-Jul), corn & soybeans (Sep-Aug), sugar & coffee (Oct-Sep)
Corn prices could fall an average of 17% next year
2011-2012 average year price: $7.25 / bushel
2012-2013 average year price: $6.00 / bushel
Corn prices are expected to be up at least through the beginning of 2012 as larger livestock herds suggest higher US feed demand than currently suggested by the USDA. But high prices are seeing production ramp up in countries like Argentina, Brazil and the Ukraine, reducing the call on U.S. exports.
Note: Agriculture commodities are in US marketing years: wheat (Jun-May), cotton (Aug-Jul), corn & soybeans (Sep-Aug), sugar & coffee (Oct-Sep)
Analysts are bullish on soybean prices though they are expected to decline 5% next year
2011-2012 average year price: $14.25 / bushel
2012-2013 average year price: $13.50 / bushel
"Weak global crushing demand and adequate Brazilian supplies have decimated demand for US 11/12 exports, though US crush is likely to rebound in 2012 to rebuild tightening soy oil inventories."
Note: Agriculture commodities are in US marketing years: wheat (Jun-May), cotton (Aug-Jul), corn & soybeans (Sep-Aug), sugar & coffee (Oct-Sep)
Average wheat prices could fall up to 7% in 2012
2011-2012 average year price: $7.50 / bushel
2012-2013 average year price: $7.00 / bushel
Wheat production and supplies have moved from a deficit to a surplus. There have been shortfalls in the U.S., but cheaper alternatives from the EU, Argentina are expected to edge out U.S. exports.
Note: Agriculture commodities are in US marketing years: wheat (Jun-May), cotton (Aug-Jul), corn & soybeans (Sep-Aug), sugar & coffee (Oct-Sep)
Live cattle's outlook for 2012 looks bullish
2011 average year price: $1.14 / lb
2012 average year price: $1.24 / lb
"Continued strength in US beef export demand, coupled with high feed costs and contracting feeder cattle supply all bode well for US cattle supply."
Feeder cattle prices will be susceptible to the deep winter
2011 average year price: $1.34 / lb
2012 average year price: $1.49 / lb
Contraction of the feeder cattle supply as a result of last summer’s drought is expected to keep prices elevated through the first half of 2012. But prices are expected to be impacted by seasonal weakness in deep winter.
Economic distress across the US bodes well for trade-down demand from beef
2011 average year price: $0.91 / lb
2012 average year price: $0.90 / lb
"Strong pork demand and positive packer margins remain a constructive force for hog prices, leaving us moderately constructive from here, as long as producers remain disciplined in the face of positive margins."
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