[原创]全球经济展望２００６

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79599.pdf (1.83 MB)

2006-12-22 18:22:00 上传

[原创]全球经济展望２００６

pdf,182pages,English.下面跟出目录

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关键词：全球经济展望 全球经济 经济展望 English Englis 经济 全球 展望 原创

Chapter 1 Prospects for the Global Economy 1
Global growth 3
Long-term prospects and poverty forecast 8
International finance 10
Commodity markets 14
World trade 16
Risks and uncertainties 18
Notes 22
References 23
Chapter 2 The Potential Gains from International Migration 25
International migration trends 26
The demographic challenge 29
Migration and its development impact 31
Returns to households 34
Returns to factors of production 41
Caveats—what the model leaves out 48
Notes 51
References 53
Chapter 3 The Policy Challenges of Migration: The Origin Countries’ Perspective 57
The migration decision and its impact on migrants and their families 59
Low-skilled migration 64
High-skilled emigration 66
Diasporas 70
The return of expatriates can benefit development 70
Temporary migration and international agreements 72
Notes 76
References 78
iii
Contents
Chapter 4 Trends, Determinants, and Macroeconomic Effects of Remittances 85
Remittance data and trends 86
Factors affecting remittance flows 92
Macroeconomic effects of remittances 99
Annex 4A.1 World Bank data on remittances 105
Annex 4A.2 A model-based estimation of informal remittance flows 108
Notes 110
References 112
Chapter 5 Remittances, Households, and Poverty 117
Remittances, poverty, and inequality 118
Remittances and household consumption smoothing 122
Remittances and indirect effects on household income 123
Remittances, savings, and investment 125
Annex 5A.1 Poverty simulation model: description and results 127
Notes 129
References 131
Chapter 6 Reducing Remittance Fees 135
Remittance fees and costs 136
Factors underpinning high remittance fees 144
Policies to reduce remittance costs 147
Remittances and financial institutions 149
Annex 6A.1 A stylized remittance transaction—structure, players, instruments 151
Annex 6A.2 Licensing and registration requirements for remittance service
providers 152
Annex 6A.3 A brief history of some remittance service providers 153
Notes 154
References 156

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