20111213-Morgan Stanley Agriculture Update : Oversold Despite Surprising Supplie

是 否 +2 论坛币

k人 参与回答

经管之家送您一份

应届毕业生专属福利!

求职就业群

赵安豆老师微信：zhaoandou666

经管之家联合CDA

送您一个全额奖学金名额~ !

立即领取

感谢您参与论坛问题回答

经管之家送您两个论坛币！

+2 论坛币

AGUPDATE_OVERSOLD[1].pdf (423.54 KB, 需要: 5 个论坛币)

2011-12-14 18:48:16 上传

农产品研究报告-19页
需要: 5 个论坛币  [购买]

	DECEMBER 13, 2011 GMT Agriculture Update
	Oversold Despite Surprising Supplies We are lowering our price forecasts across the agricultural commodities, accounting for higher global supply. However, we still see upside to prices, as the recent sell-off, particularly in corn and soybeans, is overdone in the face of still-tight US stocks and strong US feed and ethanol demand. The sell-off in agricultural commodities presents a buying opportunity, in our view. Grains have underperformed the broader commodity space by 11.1% since September 30, as the market digests expectations of better-than-expected global supply. The negative impact of this supply on US exports has sidelined concerns over poor US production, diverting the focus from still-tight US balances. Market sentiment has turned negative with few catalysts visible to reverse this shift until the new year. Agricultural commodities have broadly fallen out of favor with speculative investors since September. Speculative positioning across the ag space is as short as it has been since the start of the rally in 2010. We see little in the way of a positive catalyst until the USDA's January 12 Grain Stocks and WASDE reports, unless South American weather deteriorates. We are tempering our price outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat, marking to market and incorporating the impact of improved production. However, to be clear, we remain bullish relative to the market , with our new 11/12 price forecasts still suggesting 12%, 15% and 8% upside to the corn, soybean and wheat forward curves, respectively. We expect corn to outperform in the near term with soybeans improving over the first half of 2012. Nevertheless, a weaker outlook for the BRL has tempered our longer-term view on prices needed to encourage incremental acreage in Brazil .		Morgan Stanley Research Global Hussein Allidina +1 212 761 4150 Bennett Meier +1 (1)212 761 4967 Tian Yu +1 212 761 8582 Alan Lee +1 212 761 3266 Global Cross-Asset Directory Contact  Morgan Stanley Research You received this email because of alerts set for your saved search(es): commod Manage Saved Searches & Alerts Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC

[外行报告]MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH 每日报告/不定期更新
https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-1280442-1-1.html

扫码加我 拉你入群

请注明：姓名-公司-职位

以便审核进群资格，未注明则拒绝

分享0 收藏0 回帖

关键词：Agriculture surprising Oversold Stanley Despite 大宗商品