A Comparison of Three Probabilistic Models of Binary Discrete Choice under Risk

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西南财大光华讲坛——社会名流与企业家论坛 第2239期
题  目：A Comparison of Three Probabilistic Models of Binary Discrete Choice under Risk
演讲者：Nathaniel Wilcox (Chapman University)
主持人：梁平汉  副教授  （经济与管理研究院）
时  间：12月19日（星期一）13:15——14:30
地  点：通博楼101教室
主办方：实验经济学实验室 财税学院 科研处
摘要：This paper compares the “out-of-context” predictive success of three probabilistic models of binary discrete choice under risk. One of the models is the conventional homoscedastic latent index or “strong utility” model that is widespread in applied econometrics: This model is “context-free” in the sense that its error part is homoscedastic with respect to decision sets. The other two models are also latent index models, but their error part is heteroscedastic with respect to decision sets, and in that sense are “context-dependent” models. Context-dependent models of choice under risk arise from several different theoretical perspectives. Here I consider my own “contextual utility” model (Wilcox 2009) and the “decision field theory” model (Busemeyer and Townsend 1993). A new experiment is performed on 80 subjects. Two-thirds of the data is used to estimate models at the individual level, and these estimates are used to predict the remaining third of choices. The data is divided up so that the decision sets in the estimating data and the prediction data have interestingly different contexts. The context-dependent error models consistently outperform the context-free error model in prediction.演讲者简介：Nathaniel Wilcox，美国Chapman大学经济学教授，芝加哥大学经济学博士，曾执教于美国Houston大学，主要研究兴趣为实验经济学方法、政治与认知科学（学习理论）、应用计量经济学等。论文曾发表在American Economic Review, Econometrica, Economic Journal, Games and Economic Behavior, Journal of Econometrics等国际一流学术期刊。

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关键词：Comparison Discrete Binary Choice models Choice