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In our final Monthly Insights this year we introduce, for the first time, GDP growth forecasts for
2012 and 2013.1 As an independent asset manager we have decided that it is important to
have our own view on global GDP growth. This framework will help shape GSAM’s thinking
about the world, asset markets and related investment opportunities.
We expect global growth to slow down to 3.4% in 2012, which is below both trend and
consensus. Our most notable above-consensus call is an acceleration in US growth in 2012,
while we are much more pessimistic on the Euro area where we see a recession. Contrary to
much belief, we think that the transmission mechanism of the European crisis to the US
economy will remain relatively limited, given our base case that the Euro area will not break up.
Within Growth Markets, we also forecast slower growth for 2012, mostly below consensus.
Only Brazil stands above consensus, although still well below its growth trend. We are
expecting a slowdown in China’s growth, closer to our “conservative” estimate of its trend of
8%—a soft landing. With Turkey being particularly vulnerable to the European slowdown, its
growth outlook for next year represents our strongest below-consensus call.
On a more dynamic basis, we expect global growth to bottom out some time in the first half of
2012 and then rebound towards the end of the year. As a result, our outlook for 2013 is more
upbeat, with global growth closer to its trend at 4.1%. While growth in the developed world
outside the US is likely to remain sluggish, our 2013 forecast for Growth Markets is, on
aggregate, at trend.
The outlook is—as seemingly always these days—dependent on outcomes in Europe. While a
range of scenarios are conceivable, we simply acknowledge that an escalation of the European
crisis is a tail risk for our global view. If there were a messy unravelling of the crisis, contagion
could spread forcefully, tightening financial conditions across the world, and impairing global
growth in a meaningful way. At the first signs of that, we would revise our forecasts accordingly.
In addition to the European situation, there are other upside and downside risks to our global
view. India, the US and even Europe itself could deliver more positive growth news. A negative
growth shock could potentially come from China. A tighter squeeze in energy markets could
exert a drag on growth. Political and social shifts across the world are also another factor that
could undermine the 2012-2013 growth outcomes.
As for markets, we believe more volatility is on the horizon. We see downside risks for global
equities over the next quarter, however, given current depressed valuations, this could quickly
reverse should any signs of faster-than-expected global recovery emerge. In fixed income, we
generally prefer Growth/EM debt to DM debt, given respective growth prospects and balance
sheets. In currencies, we could see more US Dollar strength.
来 源： | 高盛亚洲 | 撰写时间： | 2011-12-16 |
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