高盛：美国钢铁行业深度报告

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<P>出版单位：高盛<BR>出版日期：2007.01.10<BR>报告的名称：高盛：美国钢铁行业深度报告<BR>文件的格式：pdf<BR>页数：35<BR>语言：英文<BR>摘要：<BR>Steel Scraps Monthly, January 2007: Evidence of sustainability<BR>2007 outlook: Staying with Attractive coverage view<BR>Our outlook for 2007 is positive. We reiterate our Attractive coverage view<BR>on steel. Falling steel supply in production, imports, and inventories<BR>should combine with stronger seasonal demand in 1Q and 2Q to cause a<BR>rebound in steel pricing by the second quarter. We think that will raise<BR>investor confidence in sustainability and lead to new highs in steel stocks.<BR>Consolidation and integration theme should continue in 2007<BR>2006 will be remembered as the year of intense consolidation in the steel<BR>industry. We expect trends toward both horizontal and vertical integration<BR>to continue, as can be seen in Nucor’s recent offer to acquire Harris Steel<BR>Group, a rebar fabricator. There are opportunities for mills to combine<BR>upstream and downstream businesses, and cash levels are more than<BR>adequate for them to pursue that strategy.<BR>Rising raw material costs support steel price<BR>Global iron ore fines and pellet prices have been settled at 9.5% and 4.5%<BR>higher for fiscal 2007, respectively, and scrap prices have moved up in the<BR>US and globally. We believe that rising costs for raw materials provide<BR>further support to steel prices. Our favorite name, US Steel, benefits the<BR>most from rising raw material costs due to its vertically integrated model<BR>at its US operations.<BR>Oversupply from China is our biggest concern<BR>The major risk to the steel sector remains China due to its potential to<BR>further depress steel markets through overproduction and excess exports.<BR>Best buy ideas: X, RS, STLD, NUE, ZEUS, GNA, and CMC<BR>We would be adding to positions in our Buy-rated steel makers: US Steel,<BR>Steel Dynamics, and Nucor are well positioned to see P/E re-rating, in our<BR>view. From the service center sector, our top picks are Buy-rated Reliance<BR>Steel and Neutral-rated Olympic Steel. Other steel stocks we view<BR>attractively include Gerdau Ameristeel and Commercial Metals.<BR>Best sell ideas: AKS and STTX<BR>Our sell ideas remain Sell-rated AK Steel and Steel Technologies due their<BR>high exposure to the US auto markets.</P>
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关键词：行业深度报告 深度报告 钢铁行业 respectively Technologies positive seasonal stronger 英文摘要 outlook

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