德银：全球电信设备行业深度研究报告

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<P>出版单位：德银<BR>出版日期：2007.01.09<BR>报告的名称：德银：全球电信设备行业深度研究报告<BR>文件的格式：pdf<BR>页数：122页(1.85兆)<BR>语言：英文<BR>介绍：<BR> Fundamentals remain tough into 2007 but valuations healthy<BR>Telecom equipment had another poor year in 2006 (4th worst performing sector of<BR>33 in Eurofirst300). While industry consolidation may lead to a better environment<BR>in 2007, weak fundamentals are likely to remain through H1. We don't have a top<BR>pick for 2007 as we believe stock rotation will be required through the year. For<BR>H1 we continue to prefer to play mobile infrastructure through Ericsson. For H2,<BR>we believe that both Nokia and Alcatel will look more interesting as they both<BR>work through poor underlying industry fundamentals early in 2007.<BR>Industry growth likely to be moderate<BR>We forecast the handset market to grow 12% in volume terms to 1.085bn units in<BR>2007, of which 190m will be based on WCDMA. However, owing to on-going ASP<BR>dilution and a weak dollar we forecast industry revenue growth to be just 4%.<BR>Increased concentration with the minnows dying will be tempered by the entrance<BR>of Apple into the space. We expect wireless infrastructure growth of 6% in 2007E<BR>reflecting new builds in India and China. We believe that market consolidation is<BR>likely lead to a more benign pricing environment in the short term, helping<BR>Ericsson. We forecast 4% wire-line infrastructure revenue growth in 2007E driven<BR>by network upgrades to all-lP and FTTH, driving the IP-DSLAM/edge<BR>routing/Gigabit Ethernet/GPON products, benefiting Alcatel-Lucent. </P>
<P>Cross industry comparison encouraging for Nokia longer term<BR>We have compared the device industry to others including the automotive<BR>(platform production), PC (consumer electronics) and spectacle (white label<BR>fashion) markets. Our findings are generally encouraging. We believe that if Nokia<BR>were to apply the same pressure to its suppliers as PC companies then it has the<BR>potential to drive returns higher. In addition, we believe the financial markets are<BR>currently placing a low value on the “stickiness” of Nokia’s installed base.<BR>Valuation looks attractive<BR>The European equipment vendors look relatively cheap on most valuation metrics<BR>and we have upside to each of our DCF-driven price targets currently. Nokia,<BR>Ericsson and Alcatel all look lowly valued trading on economic P/Es<BR>(EV/NCI/CROCI) for 2007E of 14.7x, 14.5x and 12.4x (including synergies)<BR>respectively against the Global Technology Hardware sector on 19.5x. If investors<BR>do not trust the denominators then at least they can take heart that the market<BR>implied growth rates based on 2006 numbers are only 0-2% in perpetuity which<BR>do not seem stretched. In terms of the stocks, we prefer Ericsson in the short<BR>term as various factors – not least on-going robust Sony-Ericsson performance –<BR>should benefit the company’s operational results. As Alcatel works through some<BR>difficult industry fundamentals (US carrier mergers) and delivers synergies above<BR>current management expectations, we believe the stock will be very attractive.<BR>We believe Nokia’s recovery will begin in earnest in H2 with a product refresh<BR>though in the short term we believe emerging market mix and currency will weigh.<BR>Downside industry-wide risks include operators cutting capex and in-market<BR>consolidation. Upside risks include 3G developing faster than expected and M&A.</P>
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