巴特利特追捕模型 Bartlett predator-prey model

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Two stochastic models are developed for the predator-prey process（追捕过程）. In each case it is shown that ultimate extinction of one of the two populations is certain to occur in finite time. For each model an exact expression is derived for the probability that the predators eventually become extinct when the prey birth rate is 0. These probabilities are used to derive power series approximations to extinction probabilities when the prey birth rate is not 0. On comparison with values obtained by numerical analysis the approximations are shown to be very satisfactory when initial population sizes and prey birth rate are all small. An approximation to the mean number of changes before extinction occurs is also obtained for one of the models

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关键词：Predator Bartlett Bartle model Bart eventually expression comparison developed ultimate