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DB 德银：欧洲银行业--银行业手册
（173页） 01.12 2.93M pdf
这是银行业手册.最新的版本.目录复制不上来
12 January 2007 英文版
European Banks Running the Numbers: Winter edition
In this report we are publishing our quarterly update on European banking sector data. The report covers aggregated data by country for the quoted banks, individual bank data on a standardised basis, and macro-economic data by major country. The data are extracted from our Running the Numbers database, which covers European banking sector data from 1989 to date.
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2007: Growth to attract a wider premium until the cycle turns We think that there will be two major themes to European banking sector performance in early 2007. We expect the first theme to be a continuation of growth attracting a premium, with 2008E multiples expanding. In the last latecycle phase experienced by the banks (1999), European banks reached 13-14x one-year forward earnings, suggesting that there is plenty of room for re-ratingyet. The second theme is an improvement in UK unsecured bad debt charges. We expect this improvement to favour the commercial banks over the mortgage banks, where we see risks of another round of mortgage price competition.
Party like it’s 1999?
We also see parallels between 2006/07 and 1998/99, in terms of the M&A cycle
and current levels of corporate leverage. In 1998-99 (the last banking late cycle),
the strongest performance was found in emerging markets and capital markets
plays. This momentum persisted in spite of “danger signals” (rising subinvestment
grade defaults) and ended with the banking sector trading in a 13-14x one-year forward earnings range. While we are convinced that there is a subinvestment
grade problem waiting to happen, the precedent suggests that there is no need to be early in selling this risk factor. We think that the Greek and large Spanish banks look like the best play on further growth this year, along with private banking.
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