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Europe’s carbon market will cost China’s top airlines a total 1.9 million euros ($2.6 million, 16 million yuan) this year, a fraction of the 800 million yuan that Chinese airlines say they will have to fork out to comply with caps, Thomson Reuters Point Carbon analysts said.
The four carriers with passenger routes between mainland China and the EU – Air China, China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines and Hainan Airlines – are expected to be most affected by the EU aviation scheme, which came into effect on Jan. 1.
China’s Air Transport Association has threatened to file a lawsuit over the EU’s new rules, warning they will cost Chinese carriers some 17.6 billion yuan (2 billion euros) by 2020.
But Point Carbon analysts forecast that it will be far below this.
“We foresee a steep growth curve in costs from 1.9 million euros in 2012 to 30.4 million euros in 2020 ... This is much smaller than the Chinese estimation,” said Point Carbon analyst Hongliang Chai, adding the scheme will cost the four airlines a total 131.9 million euros over the nine-year period.
Under European law, all airlines using EU airports must surrender carbon permits to cover their emissions, though many will receive the bulk of their needs for free.
Point Carbon analysts forecast the four carriers to have a collective shortfall of 430,000 permits this year, rising to 1.92 million by 2020, based on annual emissions growth of 5 percent.
Chinese airlines are predicting passenger numbers will grow by 10 percent this year.
Should their emissions grow by a similar level annually through 2020, the permit shortfall will jump to 18 million units at a total cost of 230 million euros.
Airlines receive EU Aviation Allowances (EUAAs) but are allowed to buy EU Allowances (EUAs), the CO2 permits issued to installations in the bloc’s Emissions Trading Scheme, as well as cheaper U.N.-backed carbon offsets.
The analysts based their cost calculations on an average EUA price of 9 euros and average CER price of 5 euros in 2012, which they see growing to 16 euros and 10 euros respectively by 2020.
When including Hong Kong carriers and mainland cargo airlines, the overall 2012-2020 cost rises to 400 million euros, the analysts added.
“Chinese airlines do not dominate air traffic in the routes between China and the EU, so much of the allowance cost burden of increased traffic would be borne by Europe-based carriers,” Chai said.
Green group Sandbag on Thursday predicted the UK’s top 20 airlines will need to spend around 76 million pounds (90 million euros) this year to cover their collective deficit of 11.1 million permits under the scheme.
DISTORT AND DAMAGE
More than 25 countries opposed to the EU law on Wednesday agreed on a basket of retaliatory measures in a meeting in Moscow, escalating tensions that could spark the world's first carbon trade war.
On Thursday, China reiterated its call for the EU to drop its airline emissions plan, arguing that the 27-nation bloc is exceeding its legal jurisdiction by charging airlines for carbon emitted outside of European airspace.
"Implementing this system will not only distort competition, distort the airline industry's development and create a financial burden for travellers, it will also damage the trust that is the foundation of the global response to climate change," the Civil Aviation Administration of China said in a statement on its website.
Earlier this month, Beijing banned Chinese airlines from joining the programme without its permission.
But the EU has stood firm, saying it would exempt countries that adopt equivalent measures for their airlines, or suspend the scheme should an alternative, international one be agreed under an appropriate body such as the U.N.
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