From Contrarian to Momentum–We expect rising regional(and global)nominal GDP and EPS growth in 2017.This is likely to support decent gains for European equities and we stick with our end-2017 targets of 380 for Stoxx and 7600 for FTSE 100.At a sector level,we have leant heavily on‘normalising’macro factors and have consequently been quite contrarian over the last year or so,upgrading Oil & Gas to Overweight in September 2015 and Banks to Overweight in October 2016.We continue to position for rising oil/commodity prices,inflation and bond yields and keep our preference for Commodity,Financial and Cyclical(CFC)sectors over Defensives,despite the latter’s sharp 2H16 de-rating.CFC sectors have improving earnings momentum already and we think this continues in 2017 which should drive a further leg of performance for this group.Overall,we back QE+ and growth/reflation over Vox Populi risk and recession/deflation.But,we also take political risk seriously,especially in Europe and suggest various hedges for investors,eg fiscal hedge,Black Gold,outcome agnostic sectors,USD FX kickers.
20161220-CITIGROUP-CITI_FOCUS_LIST_EUROPE:ANALYSTS’KEY_IDEAS-361932.pdf
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