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Capacity Pressure vs. Easing Potential
Capacity Constraints: LDRs ex-China are up 6% in the past year to 86%, with
fx-LDRs seeing a more dramatic surge, up 15% to 101%. The rapid rise in
leverage fuels deposit competition while external issues (Europe) pressure fxliquidity.
Banks with excess liquidity stand to benefit if stress continues; HSBC
saw NIMs +9bps Q/Q in HK while smaller bank NIMs remain under pressure.
Asia “Credit Crunch”? Focus has turned to the potential impact of foreign
banks pulling credit from Asia. Fortunately, US & European bank claims are
low at 3.8% & 3.2% of domestic credit in EM Asia. Interbank lending to GIIPS
banks is also low in HK (HK$36bn) & EU exposure is falling in SG (-12%
Y/Y). Latam and EM Europe are more likely to be impacted by deleveraging.
Topline Challenges: Euro stress will turn attention to credit costs first-andforemost;
and we expect provision estimates to inch up. That said, 3Q results also
highlight topline challenges into 2012 on both margins & fee growth, as well as
slower loan growth given capacity issues & the overall macro outlook.
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