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新屋开工率将很快的面临低迷
The figures on housing starts may soon start looking disappointing — for reasons that have little to do with the economy and a lot to do with the weather.
新屋开工率的数据将会令人失望，原因是其对经济的拉动作用甚微，却严重影响了环境。
The report on February housing starts, issued Tuesday, appears to be mixed. New permits are rising, but the seasonally adjusted level of starts dipped a bit from January to February.
二月新屋开工率的数据在星期二公布，却仍然使人们彷如雾里看花。新的房屋许可仍在增加，但新屋季节性调节标准在一、二月间有小幅下降。
This has been a very unusual winter. From December through February, the government estimates there were 137,300 units started, up 26 percent from the comparable period last year. We haven’t seen a year-over-year increase that big for a three-month period in nearly 20 years. Those figures include single-family and apartment units. Starts of single-family homes are up 19 percent, also highly unusual.
这是一个非比寻常的冬季，从去年11月到今年二月，ZF部门估计将有137，300单位的新屋动工，相比去年同期增加26%。在近20年间数据显示，从未出现逐年增加比例超过这三个月的。这些数据包括私人住宅和单位公寓，其中私人住宅同样异常增加了19%。
The big question is how much of that is the economy and how much the weather. This was a very mild winter in most of the country, and it seems reasonable to think that units that would have been started in the spring were started earlier. The seasonal adjustments magnify the gain, because normally there are not many units started in the winter. If you believe the adjustments, these have been the three best months since 2008.
关键问题在于怎样在经济增长与环境保护间权衡利弊。在大多数国家中这是一个比较温和的冬季，似乎本该在春季开始的新屋开工提早了是合情合理的。由于正常情况下没有如此多的新屋在冬季动工，季节性的数据调整有放大收益的嫌疑。如果您相信季节调整的数据，但这将是至2008年以来收益颇丰的三个月。
With spring, however, the comparisons are likely to be disappointing, because units started in January will not be started in April.So a decline in the seasonally adjusted annual rate may mean nothing. But an increase, if it somehow arrived, would be very good news.
随着春季的推进，数据将使人堪忧，因为在一月份动工的房屋将不会在四月动工了，这样季节性调整后的年利率将毫无价值，当然，如果采取其他方式使得数据增加，是大家喜闻乐见的。
Whatever the underlying trend, there is no doubt that the industry remains very depressed. The following chart shows the running 12-month total of single-family housing starts from 1959 to 2009. The first thing you’ll notice is how high the number rose during the bubble. You have to look harder to see signs of the recent recovery.
无论潜在的趋势怎样发展，工业的持续衰退是毋庸置疑的。下图为从1959年到2009年间，按季度划分的年新屋开工率数据。首先您应该注意到到的是，在经济泡沫中数字增加的如此之高，人们透过这些数据指标看到经济复苏的迹象更加的步履艰难。
Why, I wonder, did banks — and bank regulators — not see that problems were sure to develop long before they did? Had someone choked off construction loans much earlier, the pain today would be far less.
为什么会这样，我疑惑了，难道银行部门或者决策者们在调整前没有意识到这个问题的持续性？如果当局能够及早阻止建设贷款的肆意发放，那么现在的经济重创将少得多。
PS：小女才疏学浅，根据自己的理解简单的翻译了一下，互相交流学习，欢迎大家多多批评指正~
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